***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 21.8 22.8 22.2 1.4 67.9 62.3 19.8 21.2 22.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 22.3 22.7 21.7 0.9 61.8 58.2 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.8 22.2 1.0 62.4 58.6 20.5 21.8 23.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 16.3 17.0 20.1 2.1 74.8 68.2 13.0 14.6 16.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 22.6 23.3 20.9 1.3 65.5 61.1 20.5 22.0 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 22.5 23.1 20.0 2.2 74.6 68.4 19.4 20.9 22.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 21.9 22.6 21.8 1.2 65.1 60.4 20.1 21.4 22.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.6 19.7 1.5 66.8 62.0 9.9 11.2 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 22.3 23.0 21.5 1.2 64.3 60.3 20.3 21.8 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 22.0 22.8 20.4 1.5 67.0 62.1 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 22.4 22.9 21.2 1.1 62.9 59.3 20.5 21.8 23.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 21.8 22.5 20.7 1.3 64.9 60.7 19.8 21.3 22.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 22.8 23.3 20.8 1.2 63.8 59.9 20.7 22.1 23.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 22.8 23.2 21.0 1.0 61.6 58.0 20.9 22.3 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 22.9 23.5 22.0 2.0 74.0 68.4 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 23.2 23.9 20.9 1.3 65.5 61.1 21.2 22.6 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 21.5 21.9 21.3 1.0 62.8 58.9 19.8 21.0 22.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 21.5 22.2 19.7 1.4 65.9 60.9 19.7 21.0 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 22.0 22.4 22.0 0.9 61.4 57.9 20.2 21.5 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 17.8 18.7 17.9 1.5 67.4 62.1 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 22.3 23.1 22.1 1.3 66.0 61.2 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.7 21.4 1.0 62.1 58.5 20.6 21.8 23.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 22.3 22.6 22.2 1.0 61.4 58.0 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.9 21.2 1.2 63.2 59.1 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 21.8 22.7 21.0 1.5 68.6 63.0 19.9 21.3 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 23.4 23.4 20.5 1.7 69.1 64.0 20.3 21.8 23.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 22.0 22.9 21.6 1.5 68.7 62.9 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 23.2 24.0 21.1 2.2 75.5 69.1 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.7 18.9 1.2 63.8 59.5 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 22.0 22.4 21.9 1.0 62.5 58.6 20.2 21.5 22.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------