***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 21.8 21.8 21.0 1.6 66.9 63.2 18.9 20.4 21.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 21.2 21.9 20.8 1.4 65.2 61.6 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 21.3 22.0 21.2 1.3 64.2 61.1 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 15.7 15.8 19.2 1.9 70.6 67.1 11.9 13.7 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 21.3 22.0 19.6 1.4 64.1 61.8 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 22.1 22.2 18.5 1.9 68.9 66.4 18.8 20.4 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 20.8 21.8 20.9 1.6 67.3 63.2 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 11.6 12.3 18.7 1.4 64.6 62.2 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 21.4 22.0 19.9 1.3 63.3 60.8 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 21.0 21.8 19.2 1.4 64.5 61.7 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 21.4 22.1 19.7 1.2 62.5 60.6 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 21.0 21.7 19.6 1.3 63.2 61.3 18.8 20.5 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 21.9 22.7 19.1 1.5 64.8 62.8 19.9 21.4 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 21.8 22.5 19.8 1.3 63.7 60.1 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 21.8 22.1 20.0 2.0 71.9 68.5 18.7 20.2 21.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 23.3 23.2 19.5 1.5 65.3 63.0 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 21.6 21.5 20.5 1.5 67.1 62.6 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 20.4 21.1 18.8 1.4 64.2 61.1 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 21.0 21.7 20.9 1.3 64.2 60.9 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 17.4 18.2 16.8 1.5 65.6 62.6 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 21.2 22.1 20.6 1.4 65.2 62.2 19.3 20.7 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 21.3 22.1 20.4 1.4 65.5 61.2 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 21.4 22.1 21.1 1.3 63.8 60.5 19.4 20.9 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 21.4 22.2 19.9 1.4 63.8 60.6 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 21.6 21.6 19.6 1.7 68.7 65.1 18.9 20.2 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 22.7 22.7 19.5 1.8 68.0 65.5 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 22.0 22.1 20.4 1.7 68.5 64.5 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 22.2 22.5 19.6 2.0 71.3 67.9 18.6 20.3 21.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 16.5 17.1 18.0 1.3 63.2 60.5 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 20.9 21.6 20.8 1.4 64.9 61.5 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------