***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 21.6 22.3 22.1 2.2 84.6 77.6 19.9 20.7 21.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 21.9 22.4 21.8 1.9 81.0 74.4 20.3 21.0 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 22.1 22.7 22.2 2.0 81.3 74.6 20.3 21.1 21.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 15.1 16.2 19.7 2.4 87.4 80.1 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 22.3 22.8 20.5 1.9 81.0 74.6 20.5 21.2 22.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 21.6 22.7 19.4 2.5 87.6 80.7 19.6 20.5 21.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 21.5 22.2 21.8 2.1 83.6 76.5 19.9 20.6 21.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 12.1 12.6 19.4 1.9 80.6 74.0 10.2 11.0 11.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 22.2 22.7 21.1 1.9 80.6 74.2 20.3 21.1 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 21.8 22.5 20.1 2.1 82.7 75.5 19.9 20.8 21.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 22.2 22.6 20.8 1.8 79.0 73.1 20.4 21.2 21.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 21.7 22.1 20.3 1.8 78.6 72.8 19.7 20.6 21.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 22.6 23.0 20.3 1.9 79.4 73.5 20.6 21.5 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 22.5 23.2 20.9 2.0 81.3 73.9 20.5 21.4 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 21.7 22.4 21.1 2.2 85.0 79.0 19.9 20.6 21.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 23.0 23.5 20.5 2.0 80.8 74.6 21.1 21.9 22.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 21.3 21.9 21.4 2.0 83.0 75.9 19.6 20.3 21.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 21.2 21.8 19.5 2.0 81.5 74.0 19.4 20.2 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 21.8 22.3 22.0 1.9 80.4 74.0 20.1 20.8 21.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 17.9 18.4 17.4 1.8 79.4 72.5 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 22.1 22.8 21.9 2.1 83.6 76.7 20.3 21.1 21.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 22.1 22.7 21.5 2.0 82.4 75.1 20.3 21.1 21.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 22.0 22.5 22.2 2.0 80.4 74.1 20.3 21.1 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 22.2 22.9 21.0 2.0 81.7 74.3 20.3 21.1 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 21.4 22.0 20.7 2.2 84.7 77.9 19.9 20.5 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 22.2 22.9 20.0 2.0 81.7 75.6 20.3 21.1 21.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 21.7 22.5 21.5 2.2 85.4 78.2 20.1 20.8 21.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 22.1 23.3 20.5 2.4 87.5 80.5 19.9 20.9 21.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 17.1 17.5 18.6 1.8 78.4 71.6 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 21.6 22.2 21.9 1.9 81.0 74.5 20.0 20.7 21.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------