***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9.8 8.7 8.3 72.1 56.2 43.7 3.4 6.9 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.9 5.7 5.7 55.0 48.5 41.1 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.8 7.1 5.9 56.7 49.1 38.1 4.0 7.3 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.2 8.0 6.7 53.6 49.0 40.9 4.0 8.3 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.3 5.6 6.4 55.8 49.2 38.1 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.7 3.8 5.8 46.3 43.5 34.6 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.0 5.7 6.6 61.5 51.6 44.6 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 12.6 10.4 8.6 62.9 51.4 44.1 5.1 9.9 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.1 6.1 7.0 62.3 51.7 41.3 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.3 6.3 7.6 55.7 48.3 40.4 3.3 6.7 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.7 4.3 5.9 52.7 47.6 38.3 2.3 4.7 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.1 4.8 6.3 55.6 48.6 40.2 2.6 5.1 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.6 4.8 5.7 48.4 45.1 33.4 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.2 8.4 8.5 61.3 50.9 41.8 3.8 8.0 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.4 4.0 4.7 40.3 43.9 32.4 2.4 5.2 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.7 5.1 6.1 54.5 48.8 38.2 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.4 6.3 7.6 75.4 57.2 49.3 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.4 7.1 8.3 57.3 48.5 41.6 3.4 7.5 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.3 5.5 5.4 52.5 47.3 39.2 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.4 8.6 11.0 71.9 54.0 45.3 2.9 7.2 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.4 7.0 7.2 65.5 53.3 41.6 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 7.1 7.1 7.6 75.3 57.6 48.3 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.8 6.7 5.7 53.5 47.8 39.2 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.1 6.6 6.7 53.6 47.7 39.2 3.5 7.3 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.1 8.3 8.9 66.0 55.0 42.6 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.0 4.3 5.2 46.3 43.6 34.8 2.7 5.4 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.5 9.3 73.9 57.5 45.8 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.6 3.8 5.1 43.9 44.2 35.0 2.2 4.8 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 15.6 12.3 9.5 65.8 51.6 45.1 5.5 11.6 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.7 4.6 5.6 53.3 47.9 39.5 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------