***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 1.9 8.2 11.0 116.5 69.9 41.9 2.0 4.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 2.1 8.6 10.1 105.2 67.0 41.7 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 2.1 11.8 11.7 126.4 72.3 44.2 2.1 4.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.2 15.5 13.1 112.9 69.3 42.8 3.1 7.2 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 2.7 14.5 12.9 125.0 72.0 43.7 2.9 6.3 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.0 15.1 12.0 111.6 68.8 44.4 3.7 7.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 1.8 7.1 9.7 98.6 64.9 40.7 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 5.5 18.4 13.3 109.3 67.6 43.6 5.3 10.4 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 2.7 14.7 13.2 129.0 72.9 44.4 3.1 6.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 4.6 16.9 14.0 119.0 70.3 45.0 4.7 8.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.5 14.2 12.1 120.7 70.9 43.3 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.4 13.0 11.6 112.5 68.7 42.4 3.1 6.7 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.8 15.1 12.3 115.6 69.7 44.0 3.8 7.7 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.4 17.8 13.9 111.9 68.7 46.8 4.1 8.9 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.7 10.5 11.7 95.4 65.2 39.9 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.2 12.9 12.1 118.5 70.6 43.7 3.0 6.2 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.3 7.6 10.1 103.2 66.4 42.5 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 4.7 17.0 14.8 115.6 69.2 46.4 4.7 9.2 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 2.1 11.0 10.7 113.5 69.2 43.0 2.3 5.1 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.6 14.1 16.1 101.2 65.2 45.9 4.4 8.5 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 2.6 12.8 12.4 131.6 73.5 44.3 3.1 5.9 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.3 8.6 11.2 113.9 69.4 46.2 2.2 4.5 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.0 12.3 11.4 120.4 70.8 44.0 2.1 5.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.5 15.9 13.9 122.0 71.1 46.6 3.3 7.3 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.5 11.7 12.7 120.1 70.9 43.9 2.4 5.5 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.9 13.5 11.8 108.2 68.3 43.9 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.4 9.4 11.4 112.6 68.9 42.6 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.9 11.1 12.3 107.4 68.1 41.8 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 5.9 20.8 15.3 112.1 68.2 47.3 5.9 11.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 1.8 8.7 10.6 109.6 67.9 42.1 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------