***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 37.3 35.3 39.2 91.1 55.3 49.3 20.4 31.3 44.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 36.6 30.7 34.3 83.9 50.6 45.2 20.1 30.2 42.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 44.5 40.3 37.0 87.8 52.9 46.8 27.0 38.2 51.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 38.8 55.0 37.9 77.7 48.1 41.5 41.2 57.0 74.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 26.9 40.0 36.7 82.4 49.5 42.3 29.1 40.5 53.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 26.3 33.6 33.3 68.7 39.8 36.2 28.7 41.5 56.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 18.7 29.7 34.8 83.8 50.7 45.3 18.2 29.2 42.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 43.0 59.6 42.5 85.1 49.4 43.5 46.0 60.2 76.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 25.7 39.8 38.7 86.4 51.6 44.1 27.7 38.8 51.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 33.7 47.7 42.6 85.0 49.3 43.1 36.2 48.3 61.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 25.8 38.6 35.9 82.4 49.3 42.5 27.8 39.1 52.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 25.6 38.3 35.2 82.7 49.2 42.5 27.5 38.8 52.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 27.7 37.4 34.6 75.4 44.9 39.9 29.2 41.4 55.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 39.0 54.2 46.1 85.6 49.2 44.4 39.9 55.0 72.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 20.7 31.5 33.2 68.2 44.2 38.1 23.3 36.3 52.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 23.6 33.6 34.4 78.8 47.6 41.6 24.7 35.3 47.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 31.1 27.4 36.4 89.3 53.9 47.8 15.3 24.8 36.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 33.3 46.7 45.5 85.0 47.9 42.8 34.7 48.7 64.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 40.2 34.3 34.9 85.1 51.2 45.7 22.4 33.6 47.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 39.0 52.2 54.0 86.3 48.0 44.0 40.3 53.7 69.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 24.9 40.6 38.1 88.7 53.4 46.0 26.2 37.8 51.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 34.3 33.5 39.8 95.2 57.0 50.2 17.6 28.1 41.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 43.7 38.2 36.0 85.5 50.9 45.4 26.6 37.6 50.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 31.1 45.2 41.5 83.7 48.7 43.2 32.5 46.4 62.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 46.0 41.5 42.4 87.8 53.2 46.7 26.6 38.9 53.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 25.5 33.5 33.0 71.5 42.4 38.3 26.8 39.2 54.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 39.1 37.0 41.6 90.1 54.5 48.9 22.5 33.6 46.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 24.1 34.2 33.5 72.1 45.2 39.1 26.1 37.7 51.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 50.2 68.7 49.0 86.8 48.6 44.1 51.8 70.4 91.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 35.0 29.9 35.2 84.8 50.9 45.4 19.8 29.4 40.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------