***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 9.3 9.3 10.7 -1.7 23.8 27.1 9.8 10.6 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 9.2 9.5 10.7 -1.3 28.9 31.4 9.7 10.8 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 11.4 11.5 10.7 -1.5 25.6 29.0 12.0 12.9 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 6.7 6.9 8.7 -1.2 27.6 31.8 7.3 8.5 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 8.2 8.6 9.3 -0.9 31.7 35.0 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 7.3 7.6 7.4 -1.1 29.3 33.0 7.8 8.7 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 9.5 9.7 10.6 -1.4 27.6 30.3 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 3.2 3.3 7.3 -1.4 25.2 29.8 3.8 4.8 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 9.2 9.5 9.8 -0.9 31.0 34.7 9.6 10.6 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 9.1 9.3 8.1 -1.1 28.6 32.8 9.5 10.4 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 8.4 8.6 8.8 -1.1 28.4 32.6 8.9 9.8 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 7.5 7.6 8.0 -1.3 25.5 30.2 8.0 9.0 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 8.2 8.7 8.2 -0.7 35.8 38.3 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 9.9 10.0 9.4 -1.1 29.7 33.2 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 9.3 9.6 10.1 -1.0 29.5 33.1 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 9.6 10.0 8.7 -0.8 33.6 36.7 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 9.6 9.9 10.5 -1.0 32.4 34.7 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 7.9 8.2 7.3 -1.0 30.5 34.3 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 9.4 9.6 10.7 -1.3 28.5 31.2 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 4.4 4.7 5.7 -1.0 29.8 33.6 4.8 5.6 6.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 8.8 9.0 10.6 -1.2 27.3 31.0 9.3 10.3 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 8.7 8.9 10.5 -1.1 29.9 32.5 9.0 9.9 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 8.9 9.0 10.6 -1.2 28.0 31.1 9.3 10.3 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 9.0 9.2 9.2 -1.1 28.9 32.8 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 9.3 9.4 9.7 -1.5 25.3 28.8 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 8.5 8.9 8.0 -0.8 35.0 37.3 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 9.2 9.3 10.1 -1.5 25.7 28.9 9.9 11.2 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 7.6 7.9 9.4 -1.0 29.5 33.5 8.1 9.2 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 7.0 7.2 6.8 -1.0 28.6 32.7 7.5 8.5 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 9.4 9.5 10.8 -1.5 26.2 29.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------