***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 7.9 8.2 10.5 -1.2 30.9 34.7 8.4 9.6 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 7.7 8.2 10.4 -1.0 33.1 36.6 8.2 9.5 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 10.4 10.5 10.3 -1.1 30.9 34.9 10.7 11.7 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.4 5.4 8.1 -1.2 27.6 32.2 5.8 7.1 8.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 7.0 7.2 8.3 -1.0 30.3 34.6 7.4 8.7 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 6.5 6.8 7.0 -0.9 33.7 37.3 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 8.2 8.5 10.4 -1.1 32.3 35.9 8.6 9.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 2.2 2.4 7.0 -1.0 30.3 35.6 2.6 3.7 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 8.6 8.7 8.8 -1.0 31.9 35.5 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 8.0 8.2 7.4 -1.0 30.8 35.3 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 7.5 7.7 8.0 -1.0 30.4 35.4 7.9 9.0 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 6.3 6.4 7.6 -1.1 28.0 33.4 6.8 7.9 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 7.1 7.1 7.2 -1.1 29.4 33.8 7.4 8.5 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 8.8 9.1 8.8 -0.9 33.2 37.3 9.1 10.0 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 8.3 8.3 8.6 -1.3 26.1 30.3 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 8.5 8.5 7.7 -1.1 29.2 34.0 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 8.5 8.9 10.2 -0.8 35.8 38.9 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 6.7 7.1 6.9 -1.0 31.0 35.5 7.2 8.3 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 8.2 8.5 10.3 -1.0 33.3 36.8 8.5 9.7 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.2 3.6 5.8 -0.8 34.5 39.0 3.5 4.6 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.9 8.0 9.7 -1.1 30.9 34.7 8.1 9.3 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 7.5 8.0 10.2 -0.8 35.9 38.9 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 7.9 8.1 10.0 -1.0 32.7 36.4 8.2 9.2 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 8.1 8.3 8.6 -1.0 31.3 35.6 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 8.1 8.2 8.9 -1.1 29.9 34.0 8.5 9.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 7.4 7.3 7.5 -1.2 28.6 32.7 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.1 8.3 9.7 -1.1 30.8 34.7 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 6.6 6.6 8.4 -1.2 26.8 31.2 7.1 8.2 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.0 6.4 6.5 -0.9 32.8 37.6 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 8.4 8.7 10.5 -1.1 31.9 35.5 8.7 10.0 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------