***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 7.9 8.0 9.8 -0.8 31.7 34.7 8.1 8.8 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.1 9.7 -0.7 34.3 36.9 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 10.3 10.4 9.6 -0.7 32.8 35.9 10.4 11.0 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.7 5.8 7.5 -0.7 31.1 34.3 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.2 7.7 -0.6 35.1 37.8 7.1 7.9 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.7 6.4 -0.5 38.1 40.1 6.5 7.2 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 8.2 8.3 9.6 -0.8 32.9 35.6 8.3 8.9 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 2.5 2.7 6.4 -0.6 35.2 38.1 2.6 3.2 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 8.1 8.4 8.3 -0.5 36.3 39.1 8.2 9.0 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.8 8.1 6.9 -0.5 35.9 38.7 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.3 7.5 7.4 -0.5 35.2 37.8 7.4 8.2 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 6.3 6.5 7.0 -0.7 32.7 35.8 6.5 7.1 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.8 7.1 6.7 -0.5 35.6 38.2 7.0 7.7 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.4 8.7 8.2 -0.5 36.7 39.8 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 8.3 8.4 8.2 -0.7 30.4 33.6 8.5 9.0 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 8.2 8.5 7.2 -0.5 35.6 38.1 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.5 9.5 -0.5 37.6 39.6 8.3 8.9 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.0 6.3 -0.5 37.0 39.8 6.8 7.5 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.3 9.7 -0.7 34.6 37.4 8.2 8.9 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.5 5.1 -0.4 40.1 42.7 3.2 3.9 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 7.5 7.7 9.2 -0.7 34.0 37.0 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.6 9.5 -0.6 36.6 39.1 7.4 8.1 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.8 7.9 9.4 -0.6 34.6 37.6 7.8 8.5 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.9 8.0 -0.5 35.9 38.8 7.8 8.3 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 8.0 8.1 8.3 -0.8 31.9 34.8 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 7.1 7.3 6.9 -0.6 33.0 36.1 7.3 7.9 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 8.0 8.2 9.1 -0.8 32.5 35.3 8.2 9.2 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 6.5 6.6 7.8 -0.7 31.5 34.6 6.7 7.3 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.4 5.9 -0.5 37.9 40.7 6.2 6.8 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 8.3 8.4 9.8 -0.8 32.6 35.5 8.4 9.2 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------