***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 19.6 19.4 18.6 -3.3 16.8 18.5 21.2 22.7 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 93 7 0 100 19.9 19.8 18.5 -3.4 17.0 18.2 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 20.1 20.0 18.8 -3.2 18.1 19.8 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 12.9 12.8 16.7 -3.0 17.8 19.9 14.5 16.1 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 20.5 20.2 17.4 -3.1 18.1 20.2 22.0 23.7 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 19.8 19.6 15.8 -2.8 19.7 22.2 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 19.6 19.4 18.4 -3.4 16.2 17.5 21.2 22.7 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 9.6 9.6 16.1 -2.8 20.6 22.7 11.0 12.5 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 20.2 20.0 18.3 -3.0 19.0 21.0 21.7 23.3 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 82 18 0 100 19.8 19.7 16.9 -3.0 20.2 22.2 21.2 22.9 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 20.3 20.0 17.3 -3.0 18.5 20.8 21.7 23.4 24.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 83 17 0 100 19.4 19.2 16.8 -3.0 18.7 21.0 20.9 22.6 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 20.4 20.0 16.6 -3.2 17.0 19.5 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 20.1 20.2 18.1 -2.7 22.6 24.2 21.4 23.2 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 20.4 20.2 18.3 -2.8 17.3 19.5 21.8 23.3 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 21.1 20.9 17.1 -3.1 17.8 20.2 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 19.3 19.3 18.2 -3.3 17.2 18.3 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 19.2 19.2 16.3 -2.8 22.0 23.9 20.5 22.2 23.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 89 11 0 100 19.7 19.6 18.7 -3.2 17.9 19.3 21.3 22.8 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 15.6 15.5 14.7 -2.6 23.3 25.4 16.6 18.3 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 20.2 20.1 18.7 -3.2 18.7 20.7 21.7 23.3 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 89 11 0 100 19.9 19.8 18.4 -3.1 18.5 19.7 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 19.9 19.9 18.8 -3.0 19.5 21.1 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 19.9 20.0 17.8 -2.9 21.3 23.1 21.3 23.0 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 20.0 19.8 17.4 -3.2 17.3 19.2 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 20.1 19.7 16.2 -3.2 16.6 19.2 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 90 10 0 100 19.9 19.6 18.0 -3.3 16.6 18.3 21.4 22.8 24.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 87 13 0 100 20.4 20.2 17.5 -2.8 18.1 20.3 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 14.5 14.6 15.7 -2.7 22.9 24.8 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 92 8 0 100 19.8 19.6 18.6 -3.4 16.6 18.1 21.4 22.8 24.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------