***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 21.5 19.8 19.1 -1.2 35.9 39.0 19.6 21.0 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 22.1 20.5 19.0 -1.3 34.7 38.0 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 22.1 20.6 19.3 -1.1 36.8 39.8 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 12.4 12.9 17.6 -1.2 35.2 38.3 12.7 14.4 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 20.0 20.6 17.9 -1.1 37.0 39.9 20.2 21.7 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 21.4 19.7 16.7 -1.0 37.4 40.4 19.2 20.7 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 21.7 20.2 18.9 -1.3 34.8 38.1 20.0 21.2 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.5 10.4 17.0 -0.8 40.2 43.2 9.8 11.1 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 22.2 20.5 18.3 -1.1 38.0 40.8 20.1 21.5 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 19.6 20.4 17.5 -0.9 39.9 42.7 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 22.2 20.6 17.7 -1.0 37.9 40.9 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 19.4 20.0 17.6 -1.0 37.5 40.9 19.6 21.1 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 22.6 20.8 17.2 -1.3 35.2 38.8 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 22.6 21.6 18.5 -0.7 42.4 44.7 20.9 22.1 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 19.5 19.9 17.8 -1.3 33.4 36.8 19.9 21.3 22.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 20.8 21.3 17.5 -1.2 36.3 39.5 21.0 22.4 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 21.3 19.9 18.7 -1.2 35.6 38.9 19.7 20.9 21.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 19.3 20.3 17.2 -0.6 42.9 45.3 19.5 20.8 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 21.9 20.3 19.2 -1.2 35.9 39.0 20.1 21.4 22.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 17.8 16.8 15.5 -0.4 44.6 47.1 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 20.0 20.5 18.8 -1.1 37.1 40.0 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 22.2 20.8 19.0 -1.0 37.7 40.7 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 22.1 20.8 19.2 -1.0 38.3 41.1 20.4 21.6 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 20.1 21.0 18.4 -0.7 41.4 43.9 20.3 21.7 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 21.6 20.0 17.8 -1.1 36.9 39.8 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 22.3 20.4 17.1 -1.3 34.5 38.3 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 21.8 20.3 18.5 -1.1 36.9 39.9 19.9 21.3 22.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 19.5 19.9 17.8 -1.3 34.2 37.4 19.8 21.4 22.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.1 16.5 -0.5 44.4 46.7 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 21.8 20.2 19.1 -1.3 34.7 38.0 20.1 21.3 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------