***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 20.9 20.3 18.3 0.0 49.5 50.5 18.9 20.3 21.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 21.0 20.3 18.1 -0.2 47.3 48.5 19.1 20.5 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 21.2 20.7 18.4 0.0 50.3 51.0 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.5 16.6 0.0 49.6 50.6 11.8 13.6 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 21.2 20.8 17.1 0.1 51.4 52.3 19.2 20.7 22.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 20.8 20.5 16.0 0.3 53.9 54.2 18.6 20.2 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 20.7 19.9 18.0 -0.2 47.2 48.4 18.8 20.1 21.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.4 16.3 0.4 54.8 55.4 9.7 11.0 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 21.3 20.9 17.5 0.2 51.9 52.7 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 20.9 20.7 16.8 0.3 54.0 54.6 18.9 20.4 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 21.3 21.0 17.0 0.2 52.7 53.5 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.0 20.6 16.9 0.2 52.6 53.7 18.7 20.3 21.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 21.8 21.3 16.5 0.1 51.4 52.8 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 21.6 21.5 17.7 0.4 54.7 54.5 19.5 21.1 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 20.5 19.8 16.7 -0.2 47.6 48.9 18.6 20.0 21.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 22.2 21.8 16.8 0.2 52.1 53.0 20.1 21.6 23.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 20.4 19.7 17.9 -0.2 47.8 48.8 18.5 19.9 21.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 20.2 20.1 16.5 0.5 56.6 56.5 18.2 19.6 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 20.9 20.2 18.3 -0.1 48.6 49.4 18.9 20.4 21.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 18.4 17.5 14.9 0.7 58.9 58.7 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 21.1 20.7 18.0 0.1 50.7 51.6 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 21.1 20.5 18.0 0.0 49.4 49.9 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 21.3 20.8 18.4 0.1 50.8 51.2 19.3 20.7 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 21.4 21.2 17.6 0.4 54.6 54.6 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 20.5 20.0 17.0 0.0 50.3 51.2 18.8 20.0 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 21.4 20.9 16.4 0.0 49.8 51.6 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 20.9 20.4 17.6 0.0 50.3 51.2 19.1 20.4 21.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 20.7 20.0 16.8 -0.1 49.1 50.2 18.5 20.1 21.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.6 15.9 0.7 58.2 57.9 14.3 15.9 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 20.7 20.1 18.3 -0.2 47.7 48.8 18.9 20.2 21.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------