***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.9 16.4 -0.6 43.6 46.5 15.8 17.5 19.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 18.3 16.9 16.3 -0.8 41.0 44.2 16.1 17.7 19.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.6 17.2 16.5 -0.6 42.7 45.9 16.2 17.9 19.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.5 10.3 14.7 -0.4 45.2 48.0 9.1 10.8 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 18.6 17.5 15.2 -0.4 45.6 48.4 16.2 17.9 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.3 14.3 0.0 50.4 51.6 15.4 17.3 19.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 18.0 16.6 16.2 -0.7 41.9 44.8 15.7 17.3 18.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.6 14.4 -0.1 48.5 50.5 6.9 8.8 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 18.6 17.4 15.6 -0.4 45.3 48.1 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.2 14.9 -0.3 47.1 49.5 15.8 17.5 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 18.5 17.5 15.1 -0.3 46.8 49.4 16.0 17.8 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.1 15.0 -0.2 47.4 49.8 15.6 17.4 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.8 17.8 14.8 -0.2 47.9 50.0 16.3 18.1 19.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 19.0 17.7 15.7 -0.6 43.9 46.9 16.6 18.3 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.5 16.5 14.9 -0.4 44.8 47.6 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 19.3 18.3 14.9 -0.3 47.3 49.6 16.8 18.6 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 17.8 16.4 16.1 -0.7 41.7 44.5 15.6 17.2 18.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.7 16.8 14.7 -0.2 48.0 50.0 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 18.2 16.7 16.4 -0.8 41.2 44.4 15.9 17.5 19.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.3 13.1 0.1 51.0 52.3 12.3 14.2 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 18.5 17.2 16.1 -0.5 44.2 47.2 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 18.5 17.1 16.2 -0.7 41.6 44.5 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 18.5 17.1 16.4 -0.7 42.0 45.2 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 18.9 17.6 15.7 -0.4 45.3 47.9 16.3 18.1 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 18.0 17.0 15.2 -0.4 45.8 48.4 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 18.3 17.5 14.7 -0.2 48.2 50.1 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 15.8 17.2 15.8 -0.4 45.3 47.9 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 18.1 17.0 14.9 -0.4 44.9 47.7 15.8 17.5 19.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.1 14.0 -0.1 49.0 50.8 11.4 13.2 15.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 18.1 16.7 16.4 -0.7 41.4 44.6 15.9 17.5 18.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------