***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 19.5 19.5 18.1 -1.3 29.3 32.3 19.7 20.4 21.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 19.8 19.8 18.0 -1.4 27.8 30.6 20.0 20.7 21.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 19.9 19.9 18.2 -1.2 30.0 32.9 20.1 20.8 21.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 12.6 12.7 16.4 -1.2 30.1 33.4 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 20.0 20.1 16.9 -1.1 31.1 34.3 20.2 21.0 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 19.2 19.5 15.7 -0.9 34.7 37.9 19.4 20.2 21.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 19.4 19.4 17.9 -1.4 27.6 30.5 19.6 20.3 21.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.2 16.0 -0.9 35.4 38.5 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 19.9 20.1 17.5 -1.1 32.1 35.1 20.1 20.9 21.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 19.6 19.8 16.5 -0.9 34.3 37.4 19.7 20.5 21.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 19.9 20.1 16.8 -1.0 32.4 35.7 20.1 20.9 21.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 19.3 19.5 16.6 -1.0 32.6 36.1 19.5 20.4 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 20.2 20.3 16.3 -1.1 30.9 34.6 20.4 21.2 22.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 21.5 20.4 17.5 -0.9 35.2 38.0 20.3 21.2 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 19.3 19.4 16.9 -1.2 29.1 32.4 19.6 20.4 21.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 20.7 20.8 16.6 -1.1 31.7 35.1 20.9 21.7 22.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 19.1 19.2 17.7 -1.3 28.5 31.3 19.4 20.1 20.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 20.2 19.4 16.2 -0.8 37.3 40.0 19.2 19.9 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 19.6 19.6 18.1 -1.3 28.9 31.7 19.8 20.5 21.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.2 14.5 -0.5 40.6 43.1 15.8 16.6 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 19.8 19.9 17.9 -1.2 30.9 33.9 20.0 20.8 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 19.9 19.9 17.9 -1.2 30.2 32.9 20.1 20.8 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 20.0 20.0 18.2 -1.2 31.2 34.0 20.1 20.8 21.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 21.2 20.1 17.4 -0.9 34.9 37.7 20.0 20.9 21.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 19.5 19.6 16.8 -1.2 30.6 33.7 19.7 20.3 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 19.8 19.9 16.1 -1.2 30.0 33.8 20.0 20.9 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 19.6 19.7 17.5 -1.2 30.2 33.2 19.9 20.5 21.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 19.4 19.5 16.8 -1.2 29.9 33.2 19.7 20.6 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.3 15.5 -0.6 39.3 41.9 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 19.5 19.5 18.1 -1.4 27.8 30.7 19.8 20.5 21.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------