***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 14.2 20.8 18.3 173.3 81.4 70.7 3.1 6.5 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 13.2 17.4 16.2 172.1 81.2 69.5 3.8 6.8 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 15.0 19.6 19.2 175.2 81.6 72.8 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 17.7 22.6 20.4 153.6 78.2 70.5 3.8 8.1 14.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 13.1 17.4 21.7 163.0 79.7 72.4 2.5 5.6 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 13.7 19.6 22.2 190.9 83.8 75.3 3.6 6.6 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 11.6 16.7 16.1 167.0 80.4 69.3 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 22.9 33.9 23.4 198.9 84.9 77.4 6.1 11.4 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 12.1 15.8 20.4 162.1 79.6 71.9 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 17.0 23.7 23.2 181.9 82.7 75.4 4.2 8.1 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 12.2 17.3 20.6 185.5 82.9 74.6 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 13.2 21.0 21.6 212.1 86.3 78.6 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 15.7 24.5 23.5 206.0 86.0 78.3 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 22.3 31.8 24.3 200.9 85.1 77.8 4.7 9.4 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 11.9 13.4 16.6 128.2 73.3 63.3 2.9 6.0 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 12.9 19.2 22.0 193.8 84.2 75.9 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.0 13.1 14.1 149.5 77.4 63.4 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 20.6 30.0 25.3 190.9 84.0 77.0 4.8 9.4 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 14.2 19.4 17.0 180.3 82.5 71.4 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 22.5 35.1 27.6 194.5 84.7 76.5 4.9 10.0 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 13.9 19.3 20.7 178.2 82.0 74.1 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 11.6 16.0 15.9 167.0 80.3 68.4 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 15.1 20.8 17.8 177.6 82.0 72.4 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 17.7 25.2 23.4 187.8 83.5 76.5 4.2 8.2 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 14.1 19.3 23.3 174.9 81.6 74.8 3.6 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 14.4 21.6 21.6 202.0 85.0 78.6 3.1 6.4 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 14.1 19.9 21.0 177.5 82.0 73.0 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 11.4 14.1 19.2 156.2 78.0 68.6 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 29.4 42.9 25.8 191.7 84.2 76.6 6.7 13.3 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 11.3 15.8 17.4 176.7 81.9 72.1 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------