***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.4 5.9 8.3 66.1 53.5 37.4 2.6 5.2 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.4 4.8 7.7 62.1 49.8 35.2 2.4 4.8 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 4.0 9.3 9.3 75.7 56.5 41.1 4.2 7.6 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.6 14.6 9.5 60.7 51.6 36.6 7.1 13.8 23.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.2 11.2 9.5 66.7 53.3 39.3 5.8 10.2 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.5 9.5 11.4 69.0 54.1 42.1 3.8 8.2 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.1 6.3 8.0 63.0 50.7 36.5 2.9 6.2 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 14.8 12.9 10.2 77.1 55.3 42.2 5.5 10.7 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 5.6 10.0 9.3 69.2 54.0 37.9 5.3 9.0 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.3 11.6 10.5 74.6 54.7 41.4 6.1 10.2 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.4 9.2 74.1 56.1 42.6 4.7 9.3 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.1 9.9 8.8 78.1 56.9 41.3 3.7 7.6 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.5 9.9 10.2 75.0 56.5 42.5 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.4 13.5 11.5 82.4 58.3 42.6 6.2 10.6 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.3 11.0 10.7 68.6 55.9 39.8 3.8 8.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.1 7.8 9.8 72.6 55.6 42.9 3.0 6.3 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.4 4.6 7.0 55.2 47.9 34.5 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 9.7 11.8 76.3 54.9 43.7 5.2 8.5 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.2 6.1 7.8 64.4 50.7 35.5 3.4 6.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.8 9.2 13.9 74.1 54.1 43.4 4.4 8.1 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.8 10.4 9.0 71.6 55.3 39.5 4.9 8.9 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.1 5.6 7.3 58.8 48.3 34.5 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.6 8.0 8.4 71.4 54.2 37.6 4.1 7.1 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.9 12.4 11.5 82.8 58.3 44.6 6.0 10.0 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.7 10.3 10.3 68.5 54.3 39.9 4.5 8.9 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.8 9.2 8.1 67.1 53.2 39.1 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.6 9.8 68.4 54.0 39.2 3.1 6.5 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.6 11.2 9.5 61.5 52.3 37.7 5.2 10.3 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.7 15.0 12.7 76.7 55.4 44.7 7.3 12.7 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.8 5.9 8.4 67.4 52.2 37.4 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------