***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.5 6.2 7.3 70.0 52.5 37.3 2.5 5.7 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 4.1 9.2 8.1 72.5 53.8 38.7 4.0 8.0 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.9 8.2 7.6 67.4 51.4 39.2 3.5 7.7 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.0 12.6 10.1 73.0 55.2 41.8 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.4 8.6 9.2 70.6 53.2 40.8 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.4 7.8 10.6 59.6 48.2 40.3 4.1 8.3 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.3 7.8 7.8 70.1 53.5 38.2 3.4 6.8 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.4 14.0 9.5 69.0 52.5 43.4 7.8 13.2 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.5 8.8 8.3 65.0 50.6 37.9 4.3 8.6 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.9 9.2 9.6 67.9 51.8 41.6 4.1 8.5 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.7 7.7 8.4 68.4 53.0 41.5 3.2 6.9 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.3 8.4 8.0 68.4 53.1 43.2 3.4 7.5 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.5 9.0 9.2 63.1 50.6 42.0 4.5 8.8 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.6 11.7 9.6 66.8 50.9 41.6 5.2 11.2 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.9 9.9 68.3 55.2 40.7 3.2 6.7 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.7 7.5 9.0 66.7 52.1 41.6 3.1 6.8 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.7 6.6 8.1 72.0 53.8 38.3 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.5 10.9 11.1 70.3 52.3 43.3 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.1 9.6 8.0 70.9 53.2 39.3 3.9 8.5 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.5 12.2 13.2 68.4 51.0 42.6 6.2 11.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.7 9.9 7.9 70.0 53.6 40.5 4.3 8.6 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 2.6 7.8 8.9 76.2 55.6 40.0 2.7 6.2 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.2 8.5 7.7 63.8 50.2 38.4 4.2 8.4 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.3 9.7 9.6 68.6 51.8 41.8 4.2 9.0 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.7 10.1 9.9 78.1 56.2 42.4 4.1 8.2 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.5 7.3 7.6 54.3 46.9 39.2 4.3 8.1 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.1 8.9 74.2 54.4 39.8 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.4 7.1 9.7 67.6 53.9 40.6 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.7 15.6 11.8 70.5 51.9 43.1 7.9 14.6 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.7 8.2 7.9 71.5 53.5 39.1 3.6 7.2 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------