***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 37.7 40.9 43.8 103.7 61.6 53.2 19.7 31.2 45.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 38.3 39.2 42.6 102.1 59.9 51.6 20.8 31.5 44.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 44.0 48.5 46.6 107.5 62.9 55.2 26.2 37.9 51.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 66.2 66.2 51.9 97.9 58.3 50.9 41.6 57.3 75.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 46.2 48.2 51.7 101.7 59.7 53.0 29.1 40.5 53.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 47.7 50.6 56.2 100.7 59.6 53.7 29.3 42.1 57.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 19.2 37.5 42.2 99.7 58.8 51.0 18.6 30.0 44.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 66.7 73.4 53.6 109.5 63.7 56.8 46.7 60.6 76.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 44.4 45.0 49.0 99.7 58.3 51.8 27.7 38.9 51.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 53.7 57.8 54.9 106.3 61.9 55.5 36.3 48.2 61.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 45.2 51.2 48.9 109.3 63.9 56.7 28.2 39.7 53.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 44.5 53.3 47.4 114.1 66.4 58.5 28.0 39.5 52.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 47.6 54.6 53.0 109.2 63.9 56.9 30.7 42.9 56.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 62.0 74.9 58.8 115.0 66.8 60.3 40.0 55.8 73.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 45.8 43.6 49.1 92.7 56.3 48.1 24.3 37.7 54.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 41.6 47.3 51.4 109.5 64.1 56.6 25.7 36.5 49.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 15.4 29.4 39.2 93.5 55.5 48.4 15.5 25.6 38.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 56.2 61.6 60.8 108.2 63.0 57.0 35.2 49.1 64.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 42.3 44.8 43.3 104.6 61.2 52.8 22.8 35.0 49.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 61.9 62.4 67.9 102.0 58.8 52.8 41.3 54.8 69.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 44.2 49.2 47.7 106.1 62.4 55.3 26.2 38.3 52.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 36.7 37.1 42.3 100.4 59.1 51.5 18.5 29.6 43.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 44.2 47.7 44.8 104.8 61.3 53.9 27.0 38.4 52.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 51.7 61.6 57.0 112.2 65.3 59.2 30.7 45.3 62.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 45.7 50.9 54.9 107.1 63.0 55.1 25.9 38.6 54.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 45.0 50.0 46.6 102.9 60.8 54.9 28.2 40.5 55.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 40.8 44.9 50.6 106.0 62.6 54.6 23.1 34.6 48.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 44.7 44.5 50.4 97.3 58.1 50.4 26.1 37.9 51.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 78.1 84.4 63.0 106.6 61.9 56.3 50.7 69.2 90.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 36.9 39.6 44.3 105.4 61.8 53.2 20.5 30.8 43.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------