***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 9999.0 9.6 9.9 -1.9 21.7 23.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 8.8 9.1 10.0 -1.4 26.8 28.7 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 11.2 11.4 10.2 -1.5 25.9 27.9 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 6.4 6.1 8.0 -1.7 19.7 22.7 7.2 8.4 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 7.7 7.6 8.4 -1.7 20.2 23.2 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 7.0 6.7 6.2 -1.9 16.3 19.5 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 9.2 9.4 10.0 -1.5 25.1 27.1 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 2.8 2.5 6.4 -2.0 16.7 19.9 3.6 4.6 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 9.0 9.0 9.1 -1.4 24.4 26.9 9.5 10.5 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 8.9 8.9 7.5 -1.7 21.4 24.1 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 8.1 7.9 7.9 -1.8 18.5 21.5 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 83 17 0 100 7.1 6.8 7.0 -2.0 16.5 19.7 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 7.8 7.5 7.1 -1.8 17.4 21.0 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 9.6 9.8 9.0 -1.4 25.3 27.3 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 9.4 9.4 9.8 -1.2 26.4 28.7 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 9.1 8.8 7.6 -1.8 18.3 21.5 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 9.3 9.6 9.8 -1.2 29.1 31.0 9.8 10.7 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 7.7 7.6 6.7 -1.6 21.4 24.1 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 9.1 9.4 10.1 -1.3 27.2 29.1 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 4.2 4.0 4.7 -1.9 16.9 20.2 4.8 5.5 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 8.5 8.6 9.9 -1.6 23.3 25.8 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 8.4 8.7 10.0 -1.2 29.0 30.9 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 8.6 8.8 10.0 -1.3 27.0 28.8 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 8.9 9.0 8.7 -1.4 25.1 27.3 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 8.8 8.5 8.8 -2.2 17.0 19.6 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 8.1 7.8 6.7 -2.0 17.6 21.7 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 8.6 8.4 9.2 -2.0 19.4 21.8 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 7.5 7.4 8.8 -1.4 23.7 26.4 8.0 9.0 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 6.5 6.4 6.0 -1.7 19.2 22.1 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 9.1 9.4 10.2 -1.5 25.4 27.3 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------