***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 9.6 10.5 -0.5 41.9 44.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 7.8 8.9 10.3 -0.4 43.3 46.2 8.0 9.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 10.3 11.2 10.3 -0.4 43.2 45.9 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.2 8.3 -0.6 39.4 42.8 5.7 6.9 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.9 8.4 -0.5 41.4 44.3 7.2 8.5 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.6 7.2 -0.1 47.6 50.0 6.5 7.8 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 8.1 9.1 10.3 -0.4 43.1 46.0 8.4 9.5 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.4 7.3 -0.3 44.5 47.0 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 8.5 9.4 9.1 -0.4 44.0 46.3 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 9.7 8.9 7.7 -0.4 44.1 46.6 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.5 8.2 -0.3 44.8 46.8 7.6 8.8 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.4 8.0 -0.2 46.2 48.1 6.5 7.7 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.2 7.7 -0.1 48.1 50.0 7.1 8.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.6 9.6 9.1 -0.2 46.6 48.7 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.4 9.0 -0.3 43.9 46.0 8.6 9.8 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.5 8.0 -0.2 46.5 48.5 8.6 9.7 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 8.3 9.4 10.1 -0.3 45.4 47.7 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.7 7.7 7.3 -0.3 45.3 47.7 6.9 8.1 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 8.2 9.2 10.3 -0.4 44.2 46.8 8.4 9.5 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.1 4.1 6.0 -0.3 45.1 47.9 3.3 4.5 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.7 8.7 9.9 -0.5 42.5 45.2 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 7.5 8.5 10.1 -0.3 45.4 47.7 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.8 8.8 10.2 -0.3 45.6 47.8 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.9 8.8 8.9 -0.3 45.9 47.9 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 8.2 9.1 9.1 -0.6 40.7 44.0 8.4 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.2 8.6 8.2 0.1 50.9 52.3 7.4 8.5 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 8.2 9.3 9.8 -0.5 42.1 45.1 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.5 8.7 -0.4 42.7 45.4 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.2 7.2 6.8 -0.2 46.0 48.4 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 8.4 9.4 10.4 -0.5 42.7 45.7 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------