***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 4.6 8.5 -1.2 33.2 36.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.3 4.7 8.1 -1.2 33.1 37.0 4.7 6.1 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 6.7 7.2 8.2 -1.1 33.5 37.1 7.2 8.4 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 2.0 2.2 6.1 -1.2 30.7 34.9 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.4 3.7 6.2 -1.3 31.0 35.0 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.9 3.4 4.9 -1.0 34.2 38.7 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.4 4.8 8.1 -1.2 33.0 37.0 4.8 6.0 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -0.9 -0.4 5.2 -1.1 33.7 37.8 -0.5 1.1 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.6 5.0 6.9 -1.2 32.8 36.4 5.0 6.3 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.4 4.7 5.6 -1.2 33.5 37.2 4.7 6.0 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.8 4.2 6.0 -1.2 32.3 36.4 4.2 5.5 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.9 3.2 5.8 -1.1 33.2 37.4 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.3 3.6 5.2 -1.1 32.9 37.2 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.9 5.4 6.9 -1.1 33.7 37.7 5.3 6.5 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.7 5.2 6.8 -0.9 34.8 38.5 5.0 6.2 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.8 5.2 5.6 -1.1 32.7 36.8 5.2 6.5 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.5 4.9 7.9 -1.1 34.0 38.1 4.9 6.0 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.3 3.8 5.2 -1.1 34.6 38.4 3.6 4.9 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.4 4.9 8.1 -1.1 33.3 37.1 4.9 6.2 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -0.3 0.3 4.0 -1.0 35.7 39.9 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.2 4.6 7.7 -1.2 32.8 36.5 4.6 6.0 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.8 4.2 7.8 -1.1 33.9 37.9 4.1 5.4 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.2 4.8 8.0 -1.1 33.5 37.1 4.8 6.1 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.0 4.5 6.7 -1.1 34.0 37.9 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.5 4.9 6.9 -1.3 32.1 36.1 5.0 6.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.9 4.3 5.6 -0.9 35.6 39.8 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.3 4.7 7.7 -1.2 33.0 36.7 4.7 6.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.8 3.2 6.4 -1.1 33.0 36.9 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 2.5 3.1 4.8 -1.0 35.2 39.1 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 4.5 5.0 8.3 -1.2 33.0 36.8 5.0 6.4 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------