***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 8.1 9.8 -1.0 28.3 34.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 7.6 7.7 9.6 -0.8 31.1 36.2 7.8 8.6 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 10.0 10.1 9.7 -0.8 30.5 36.0 10.2 10.8 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 5.4 5.3 7.6 -1.0 24.5 31.3 5.7 6.2 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 6.6 6.5 7.8 -1.0 25.3 32.1 6.9 7.8 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 6.0 6.1 6.2 -0.8 28.5 35.6 6.3 7.0 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 7.9 8.0 9.6 -0.8 30.4 35.8 8.1 8.7 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 2.2 2.2 6.4 -0.9 26.1 33.3 2.5 3.1 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 7.9 7.9 8.4 -0.8 29.1 35.4 8.1 8.8 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 7.6 7.6 7.0 -0.9 27.5 34.4 7.8 8.5 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 7.0 7.0 7.5 -0.9 26.7 33.5 7.3 8.0 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 6.1 6.1 7.1 -0.9 26.8 33.7 6.3 7.0 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 6.5 6.6 6.7 -0.8 28.2 35.1 6.8 7.5 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.3 8.4 8.4 -0.7 31.2 37.1 8.4 9.0 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 8.2 8.3 8.5 -0.6 32.3 37.4 8.3 8.8 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 7.9 8.0 7.1 -0.8 27.7 34.5 8.2 8.9 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 8.0 8.2 9.4 -0.7 33.3 37.9 8.2 8.8 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 6.4 6.5 6.5 -0.8 28.7 35.8 6.7 7.4 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 7.9 8.0 9.6 -0.8 31.7 36.7 8.1 8.7 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 2.8 2.9 5.1 -0.9 28.0 35.7 3.1 3.8 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 7.3 7.3 9.3 -0.9 28.6 34.7 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 7.1 7.3 9.4 -0.7 33.1 37.8 7.3 7.9 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 7.4 7.6 9.5 -0.7 32.2 37.2 7.6 8.3 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 7.5 7.6 8.2 -0.7 30.9 37.0 7.6 8.2 8.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 7.7 7.6 8.4 -1.1 24.7 31.2 8.0 8.9 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 7.0 7.1 7.0 -0.7 30.7 37.5 7.2 7.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 7.7 7.6 9.1 -1.0 27.0 33.3 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 6.3 6.3 8.0 -0.8 29.2 35.1 6.5 7.2 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 5.8 5.9 6.0 -0.8 28.5 36.0 6.0 6.7 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 8.0 8.1 9.7 -0.9 30.2 35.6 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------