***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 21.5 19.1 -1.7 28.6 31.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 20.8 21.1 19.1 -1.6 30.0 32.4 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 21.1 21.3 19.4 -1.5 31.5 34.1 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 14.1 14.1 17.4 -1.5 30.8 34.3 14.3 15.9 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 21.5 21.6 18.1 -1.5 31.4 34.7 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 20.5 20.2 16.0 -1.8 27.2 31.6 20.8 22.4 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 20.4 20.7 18.9 -1.7 28.7 31.0 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 10.3 10.7 16.6 -1.3 33.5 36.8 10.7 12.2 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 21.1 21.5 19.0 -1.3 33.7 36.6 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 20.5 21.1 17.5 -1.3 34.2 37.2 20.9 22.6 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 21.1 21.4 17.9 -1.5 32.2 35.5 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 20.4 20.8 17.5 -1.4 33.0 36.4 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 21.4 21.4 17.4 -1.6 30.0 33.8 21.7 23.3 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 20.9 21.5 18.6 -1.2 35.2 37.5 21.3 22.9 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 23.7 21.8 19.2 -1.1 33.6 36.5 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 22.1 22.1 17.7 -1.6 30.7 34.4 22.4 23.9 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 20.2 20.6 18.8 -1.5 31.1 33.3 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 20.0 20.4 16.7 -1.3 34.0 36.9 20.3 21.9 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 20.6 21.0 19.3 -1.5 31.7 34.0 21.1 22.6 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 15.9 16.4 15.0 -1.3 33.9 37.3 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 21.2 21.2 19.2 -1.6 30.7 33.8 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 20.8 21.2 19.0 -1.4 32.0 34.3 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 20.8 21.3 19.4 -1.2 34.2 36.5 21.2 22.7 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 20.7 21.1 18.2 -1.4 33.3 36.0 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 20.9 20.5 17.7 -2.0 25.8 29.3 21.2 22.6 23.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 21.0 21.2 17.1 -1.5 30.6 34.4 21.4 23.0 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 20.7 20.5 18.3 -2.0 25.9 29.0 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 21.5 21.6 18.3 -1.3 32.2 35.5 21.7 23.2 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 15.2 15.7 16.1 -1.3 34.3 37.2 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 20.7 20.9 19.2 -1.6 29.8 32.3 21.1 22.6 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------