***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 21.0 19.2 0.2 52.4 52.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 18.4 20.2 19.0 0.1 51.5 51.9 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 18.5 20.6 19.5 0.4 54.9 54.0 18.8 20.2 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 11.3 13.6 17.8 0.4 54.7 53.8 11.7 13.2 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 18.6 20.8 18.3 0.5 56.0 54.7 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 18.2 20.5 17.2 0.7 57.6 55.9 18.5 19.9 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 18.0 19.8 18.8 0.0 50.0 51.0 18.4 19.8 21.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.2 11.4 17.4 0.7 58.5 56.4 9.5 10.8 11.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 18.6 20.9 18.8 0.6 56.9 55.3 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 18.4 20.5 18.0 0.7 57.9 56.0 18.6 19.9 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 18.6 21.1 18.3 0.7 58.4 56.2 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 18.3 20.8 18.2 0.8 59.1 56.7 18.6 20.0 21.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 19.1 21.5 17.9 0.7 58.4 56.3 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 18.9 21.2 18.7 0.6 56.7 55.2 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 17.8 20.1 18.1 0.6 57.2 55.4 18.3 19.6 20.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 19.5 21.9 18.1 0.7 58.3 56.3 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 17.8 19.5 18.6 0.0 50.1 51.0 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 17.6 19.7 17.5 0.7 57.8 55.9 17.9 19.2 20.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 18.4 20.3 19.3 0.3 53.5 53.2 18.7 20.0 21.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 17.0 17.0 15.5 0.6 57.4 55.9 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 18.5 20.6 19.2 0.4 55.2 54.1 18.8 20.2 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 18.6 20.4 18.8 0.1 51.7 52.1 18.9 20.3 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 18.8 20.8 19.5 0.5 55.9 54.7 19.1 20.4 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 18.6 20.9 18.7 0.6 57.2 55.5 18.9 20.3 21.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 18.1 19.8 17.9 0.2 52.4 52.3 18.5 19.7 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 19.1 21.2 17.8 0.6 57.8 55.8 19.4 20.6 21.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 18.4 20.1 18.4 0.1 51.3 51.6 18.7 20.0 21.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 17.8 20.3 18.2 0.6 56.7 55.2 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 13.7 16.1 16.7 0.7 57.9 56.0 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 18.1 20.0 19.2 0.2 52.1 52.3 18.5 19.9 21.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------