***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 16.9 16.5 -1.0 36.3 41.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 15.5 16.0 16.4 -1.0 36.1 41.4 15.7 17.2 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 15.7 16.4 16.7 -0.9 38.0 42.6 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 8.4 9.2 15.0 -1.0 36.9 40.7 8.8 10.5 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 15.7 16.5 15.5 -0.9 38.5 42.2 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 17.8 16.3 14.5 -0.6 42.4 45.1 15.3 17.1 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 15.2 15.7 16.2 -1.0 35.7 40.8 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.3 8.0 14.8 -0.5 43.5 46.3 6.8 8.7 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 15.7 16.7 16.0 -0.8 39.7 43.4 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 15.3 16.5 15.2 -0.7 41.6 45.0 15.7 17.3 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 15.4 16.7 15.5 -0.7 41.3 44.3 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 15.0 16.6 15.6 -0.5 44.3 46.5 15.4 17.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 15.6 17.3 15.3 -0.5 44.2 46.4 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 15.9 17.0 15.9 -0.8 39.9 44.7 16.3 18.0 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 14.9 15.7 15.3 -0.8 38.9 42.2 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 16.2 17.5 15.4 -0.7 41.9 44.6 16.6 18.3 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.4 16.0 -1.0 35.2 40.8 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 14.7 16.0 14.8 -0.6 42.2 45.8 15.1 16.7 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 15.3 16.0 16.6 -0.9 37.3 42.5 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 11.7 13.5 13.1 -0.5 44.2 47.3 12.2 14.1 15.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 15.7 16.4 16.4 -0.9 38.0 42.1 15.9 17.6 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 15.5 16.1 16.1 -1.0 35.4 41.3 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 15.7 16.5 16.7 -0.8 39.2 44.0 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 15.8 16.9 15.9 -0.7 40.7 44.8 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 15.2 15.8 15.2 -1.0 36.2 40.8 15.5 17.0 18.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 15.3 17.0 15.3 -0.3 45.9 47.6 15.7 17.4 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 15.5 16.1 15.8 -1.0 36.1 40.9 15.8 17.4 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 15.2 16.1 15.4 -0.8 38.6 41.9 15.5 17.2 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 10.8 12.4 14.1 -0.6 42.9 46.4 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 15.3 15.9 16.5 -1.0 36.4 41.5 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------