***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 20.0 18.6 -0.7 36.1 39.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 19.5 19.9 18.5 -0.7 36.9 40.1 19.7 20.4 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 19.6 20.1 18.9 -0.5 39.9 42.9 19.8 20.6 21.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 12.4 12.9 17.1 -0.6 38.8 42.3 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 19.7 20.3 17.6 -0.5 40.8 43.8 19.9 20.7 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 18.9 19.7 16.3 -0.3 43.3 45.9 19.2 20.0 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 19.2 19.5 18.3 -0.8 35.2 38.7 19.4 20.1 20.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.7 10.6 16.7 -0.2 46.5 48.1 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 19.7 20.4 18.2 -0.4 43.2 45.6 19.9 20.7 21.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 19.3 20.1 17.3 -0.2 45.3 47.1 19.5 20.3 21.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 19.7 20.4 17.6 -0.3 44.5 46.6 19.9 20.7 21.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 19.1 20.0 17.5 -0.1 47.1 48.6 19.3 20.2 21.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 19.9 20.8 17.2 -0.2 45.6 47.4 20.2 21.0 21.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 19.8 20.7 18.0 -0.3 44.6 46.3 20.1 20.9 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 19.2 19.8 17.8 -0.4 42.9 45.3 19.4 20.1 20.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 20.5 21.2 17.4 -0.3 44.4 46.5 20.7 21.5 22.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 18.9 19.2 18.1 -0.7 36.5 39.6 19.1 19.8 20.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 18.8 19.5 16.7 -0.2 45.5 47.2 18.9 19.7 20.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 19.3 19.8 18.7 -0.6 39.4 42.2 19.5 20.3 20.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 15.5 16.3 14.8 -0.2 45.9 47.7 15.6 16.5 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 19.6 20.1 18.6 -0.6 39.6 42.8 19.8 20.6 21.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 19.6 20.0 18.3 -0.7 37.8 40.8 19.8 20.5 21.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 19.6 20.3 18.9 -0.4 43.0 45.1 19.9 20.5 21.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 19.6 20.4 18.0 -0.3 44.2 46.1 19.8 20.6 21.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 19.2 19.5 17.2 -0.8 34.7 39.1 19.4 20.0 20.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 19.6 20.5 17.1 -0.2 46.4 48.1 19.8 20.7 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 19.4 19.7 17.8 -0.8 34.1 38.4 19.6 20.3 21.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 19.2 19.9 17.6 -0.4 41.8 44.5 19.4 20.4 21.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 14.7 15.4 16.0 -0.2 46.0 47.6 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 19.3 19.7 18.6 -0.7 37.1 40.3 19.5 20.2 20.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------