***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 7.9 8.1 68.8 53.7 40.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.7 7.3 7.4 67.5 52.6 40.6 3.7 6.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.7 9.5 8.3 71.2 53.4 40.3 4.7 8.5 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.1 10.9 8.1 59.7 50.0 39.4 5.4 10.9 18.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.9 7.2 8.7 62.4 49.6 39.7 3.5 7.4 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.6 7.0 8.6 56.2 47.4 39.5 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.6 6.6 7.0 62.4 51.0 39.3 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.1 10.9 8.9 60.8 47.5 37.7 6.6 11.8 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.4 7.8 9.5 69.2 51.6 41.5 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.5 10.1 10.3 69.3 51.1 41.1 5.3 9.8 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.0 7.6 8.2 61.7 49.7 39.3 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 3.3 6.2 7.3 55.4 45.9 35.9 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.7 6.2 7.7 53.0 44.5 35.8 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.1 12.0 10.5 72.4 53.9 43.4 5.8 10.7 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 3.7 6.2 6.1 44.4 43.6 33.1 3.7 7.9 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.5 5.9 7.7 54.6 46.2 36.9 3.6 6.8 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.3 5.3 6.4 58.1 48.3 37.5 3.2 5.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.1 10.4 11.7 73.7 52.3 43.1 4.7 9.5 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.1 7.2 8.0 71.3 53.4 41.0 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 5.3 8.7 10.6 60.1 44.3 35.8 5.3 10.8 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.6 8.9 8.6 68.6 52.7 40.4 4.2 8.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.4 6.6 7.4 64.1 51.3 40.6 3.5 6.3 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.3 8.3 8.7 71.4 51.5 39.3 4.6 7.9 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.1 10.4 10.5 74.6 53.6 42.9 4.9 9.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.6 10.1 9.0 67.4 51.8 39.7 5.2 9.5 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 3.4 4.8 5.7 41.1 37.7 29.6 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.8 9.6 8.9 69.1 53.4 40.5 4.4 8.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.3 5.7 7.3 52.3 47.3 37.3 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.8 15.0 11.6 70.0 49.4 40.4 8.0 15.2 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.8 6.2 7.8 68.8 53.3 40.7 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------