***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 11.7 13.1 126.8 72.4 53.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.6 9.9 12.8 119.4 70.5 54.8 2.0 4.5 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.7 12.3 13.3 125.1 71.8 53.2 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.5 23.6 13.8 115.6 70.1 51.1 7.0 12.8 20.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.8 14.2 12.9 106.3 67.3 50.4 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.6 11.0 14.2 92.6 62.4 46.9 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.2 12.2 12.9 119.4 70.6 55.2 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.8 14.2 13.0 87.5 61.1 47.8 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.8 12.6 13.1 107.7 67.6 52.2 4.4 7.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.2 12.7 13.4 96.6 63.8 50.1 4.9 8.6 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.4 12.6 11.3 98.4 64.9 48.3 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.6 10.3 10.9 90.0 62.5 47.3 3.0 6.5 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.6 12.0 88.6 61.3 45.5 3.2 6.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.5 19.3 15.5 120.4 70.8 53.7 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.8 15.3 13.5 115.3 70.0 47.6 3.2 7.1 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.0 9.7 11.9 98.0 64.7 47.5 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.5 9.4 12.3 110.2 68.4 54.2 2.3 4.7 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.8 11.8 15.8 102.6 65.3 52.3 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.2 11.1 12.9 119.1 70.3 53.6 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.4 12.8 19.4 93.4 62.5 49.9 4.7 8.6 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.3 13.0 12.9 117.9 70.2 52.5 4.1 7.3 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.7 10.2 12.7 111.3 68.6 53.4 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.0 13.6 13.0 116.2 69.6 52.1 3.8 7.1 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.2 14.5 14.6 113.6 68.6 51.8 5.3 8.9 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.1 13.9 14.5 115.9 69.6 52.5 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.8 9.3 10.9 82.8 59.8 42.4 2.6 6.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.7 10.6 14.4 121.9 71.1 53.5 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.3 18.0 13.3 112.3 69.3 48.6 4.8 9.5 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.9 17.3 17.2 99.3 64.1 51.0 6.6 11.6 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.9 10.7 13.1 124.1 71.6 55.0 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------