***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 9.0 9.1 86.8 61.2 43.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.3 9.5 81.8 58.4 45.1 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.2 11.4 9.1 82.1 59.1 43.3 3.6 8.0 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.9 11.7 8.6 69.2 53.9 38.7 5.3 10.3 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.2 8.6 8.5 70.3 54.8 41.0 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.9 11.4 10.5 74.6 56.0 43.0 4.4 9.1 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.1 9.0 9.9 86.9 60.4 46.1 2.9 6.0 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.3 14.9 9.5 68.4 53.2 42.4 7.7 13.6 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.8 9.7 8.9 75.0 56.3 42.2 3.6 7.6 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.2 9.7 71.6 54.6 42.8 3.3 7.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.3 6.7 7.5 63.2 51.5 39.7 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.8 7.4 63.3 51.6 40.2 3.3 7.3 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.2 10.5 8.7 69.1 53.8 41.6 4.3 9.1 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.7 11.8 10.4 74.6 55.4 44.1 4.1 9.3 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.9 6.8 8.3 65.8 53.4 37.4 2.7 5.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.8 6.9 7.5 62.0 50.2 38.7 3.0 6.9 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.9 7.6 10.2 87.4 61.0 48.5 2.4 5.1 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.0 11.5 11.2 73.7 54.6 44.2 4.4 9.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.1 9.0 79.0 57.9 44.1 3.4 7.5 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.2 12.4 14.1 73.9 54.6 45.2 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.9 11.6 8.6 78.8 58.0 41.6 4.4 8.8 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.8 10.2 84.2 59.7 47.7 2.7 5.9 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.0 8.7 75.4 57.2 42.8 2.9 6.7 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.5 10.1 75.6 55.8 43.6 3.3 8.2 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.8 9.7 80.6 58.0 41.7 4.0 8.1 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.9 11.7 9.1 80.3 58.5 43.4 4.6 8.9 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.4 9.6 10.1 87.1 60.7 43.8 2.8 6.2 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.7 5.6 8.0 62.9 51.8 37.0 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.3 15.8 12.6 74.9 55.3 45.3 6.2 13.0 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.0 9.3 82.7 58.7 44.2 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------