***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 34.6 39.4 91.4 55.2 47.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 37.7 33.5 38.8 87.0 51.6 46.2 21.8 32.5 45.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 44.9 41.8 39.8 91.1 54.3 47.4 26.0 38.3 52.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 40.8 55.7 39.7 81.1 47.7 42.0 41.9 58.2 76.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 29.6 39.3 39.3 80.1 45.8 41.3 30.6 42.4 55.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 28.4 36.7 43.3 77.5 43.5 40.5 28.8 42.0 57.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 36.6 31.5 39.2 86.9 51.2 45.9 19.5 30.5 44.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 46.9 53.5 41.3 74.8 40.5 38.5 47.7 60.9 75.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 27.5 38.4 41.0 84.1 48.5 43.7 27.7 39.6 53.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 57.1 46.8 43.6 80.6 44.9 41.8 38.2 50.6 64.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 28.9 35.7 35.3 75.5 42.8 39.5 29.2 41.0 54.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 27.9 33.2 33.5 71.8 40.1 37.4 28.7 40.0 53.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 28.9 34.5 37.1 72.9 39.8 37.2 29.8 41.8 56.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 66.0 58.9 48.8 89.0 51.0 45.6 42.5 57.9 75.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 21.9 31.3 36.6 74.3 43.7 38.2 23.4 36.7 53.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 25.1 30.5 35.4 72.9 40.8 37.8 25.9 36.5 48.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 31.5 26.6 38.4 85.2 50.3 45.6 16.7 26.4 38.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 57.1 47.0 51.3 85.2 47.0 43.5 35.5 49.8 66.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 42.1 37.6 39.0 87.7 51.8 46.1 24.0 36.2 50.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 63.3 48.1 59.0 79.2 40.8 39.2 42.0 55.6 70.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 28.0 41.6 39.1 87.9 52.1 45.8 27.8 39.8 53.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 36.8 32.7 40.1 87.3 51.8 46.9 20.6 31.3 44.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 45.4 39.7 39.9 86.8 50.2 44.4 28.0 39.5 52.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 54.8 46.8 46.6 88.6 50.2 45.0 31.9 46.8 64.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 24.9 40.5 43.4 87.4 51.4 44.6 25.7 39.1 55.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 28.4 33.1 33.5 69.7 37.9 35.4 29.6 41.9 55.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 22.7 38.0 43.3 90.5 53.7 46.3 22.4 34.9 50.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 25.4 34.2 37.2 75.5 44.0 39.2 26.8 38.5 52.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 81.1 66.3 55.4 84.0 45.7 42.5 52.5 71.3 92.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 36.8 33.4 39.2 88.7 53.0 46.9 21.0 31.4 43.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------