***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 11.8 12.5 14.1 2.1 83.1 79.4 9.7 10.6 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 12.2 12.6 13.2 1.7 79.2 75.9 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 14.1 14.8 14.0 1.9 81.7 78.4 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 10.0 11.0 11.5 2.0 82.8 79.1 7.2 8.4 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 11.1 12.0 12.5 2.1 83.8 80.6 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 10.1 10.8 10.0 2.3 85.6 83.1 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 12.1 12.5 13.2 1.7 78.4 74.9 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 6.0 6.7 10.1 2.1 84.0 81.7 3.6 4.6 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 11.8 12.5 12.3 1.9 82.8 80.0 9.5 10.5 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 11.4 12.0 10.8 2.0 83.9 81.4 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 11.0 11.5 11.9 1.8 81.2 78.7 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 10.2 10.8 11.1 2.2 84.0 81.6 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 10.8 11.4 11.2 2.2 84.7 82.6 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 12.1 12.7 12.1 2.1 85.5 83.0 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 11.6 12.0 12.8 1.3 76.1 73.1 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 12.0 12.7 11.6 2.1 84.3 81.7 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 12.0 12.4 12.8 1.7 79.0 75.4 9.8 10.7 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 10.5 11.2 10.3 2.2 85.4 83.0 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 11.9 12.4 13.2 1.7 79.1 76.1 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 6.7 7.3 9.0 2.4 86.7 84.6 4.8 5.5 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 11.7 12.3 13.4 1.9 82.5 79.4 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 10.9 11.4 13.1 1.6 79.5 76.4 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 11.5 11.9 13.2 1.6 78.8 76.2 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 11.3 12.0 12.1 2.0 84.9 82.2 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 12.3 13.2 13.6 2.2 83.2 79.5 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 10.8 11.5 10.7 2.5 86.2 84.1 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 12.9 14.1 13.8 2.2 83.8 80.0 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 10.4 11.2 11.8 1.9 82.2 78.7 8.0 9.0 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 10.0 10.8 9.6 2.1 84.7 82.4 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 12.4 12.9 13.6 1.8 79.5 76.3 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------