***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.2 9.0 0.1 51.3 50.0 4.7 6.1 7.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.4 6.0 8.5 -0.1 48.3 48.0 4.7 6.1 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.8 8.5 9.1 0.1 51.0 50.2 7.2 8.4 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.0 6.5 0.3 55.3 53.7 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.6 5.7 6.9 0.3 54.5 53.0 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.0 5.3 5.4 0.5 57.8 56.1 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.5 5.9 8.5 -0.1 47.9 47.6 4.8 6.0 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -1.0 1.5 5.3 0.3 54.5 53.2 -0.5 1.1 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.7 6.7 7.2 0.3 54.6 52.7 5.0 6.3 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.4 6.3 5.9 0.3 54.5 52.9 4.7 6.0 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.8 5.9 6.5 0.3 55.3 53.6 4.2 5.5 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.7 5.0 5.9 0.4 55.7 54.0 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.3 5.6 5.6 0.5 57.2 55.2 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.0 6.5 7.0 0.0 50.0 49.5 5.3 6.5 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.8 6.6 7.6 0.4 56.8 54.6 5.0 6.2 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.8 7.0 6.1 0.5 56.8 54.9 5.2 6.5 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.6 5.9 8.3 -0.2 47.7 47.5 4.9 6.0 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.3 5.3 5.3 0.3 54.4 52.9 3.6 4.9 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.5 6.1 8.6 -0.1 48.7 48.4 4.9 6.2 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -0.3 1.9 3.8 0.3 54.0 53.1 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.3 6.3 8.4 0.2 52.8 51.5 4.6 6.0 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.2 8.2 -0.2 47.8 47.8 4.1 5.4 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.4 6.0 8.6 0.0 49.3 48.9 4.8 6.1 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.1 5.8 6.8 0.2 53.0 51.6 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.7 6.6 7.8 0.2 52.5 51.1 5.0 6.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.8 5.9 5.5 0.5 57.6 55.7 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.3 6.6 8.5 0.1 51.5 50.1 4.7 6.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.8 5.0 6.7 0.4 56.1 54.4 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.6 4.9 0.3 53.6 52.6 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.6 6.3 8.7 -0.1 49.0 48.5 5.0 6.4 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------