***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.5 11.2 0.8 68.8 63.1 7.9 8.6 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.3 10.6 0.6 63.7 59.7 7.8 8.6 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.4 11.2 0.7 67.2 62.3 10.2 10.8 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 6.9 7.1 8.8 1.0 73.9 67.3 5.7 6.2 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 8.7 8.9 9.3 0.9 72.0 66.1 6.9 7.8 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 7.9 8.2 7.5 1.1 76.8 70.5 6.3 7.0 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.2 10.6 0.6 63.7 59.8 8.1 8.7 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 3.8 3.9 7.3 0.9 71.8 66.2 2.5 3.1 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 9.6 9.7 9.4 0.8 70.5 64.7 8.1 8.8 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 9.2 9.3 8.0 0.8 71.6 65.7 7.8 8.5 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 8.8 8.9 8.8 0.8 70.7 65.5 7.3 8.0 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 7.7 7.9 8.1 0.9 73.3 67.5 6.3 7.0 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 8.3 8.6 7.9 1.0 75.1 69.1 6.8 7.5 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 9.6 9.6 9.2 0.7 68.4 63.3 8.4 9.0 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 9.4 9.5 10.1 0.8 72.1 66.1 8.3 8.8 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 9.7 10.0 8.4 1.0 74.3 68.5 8.2 8.9 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.2 10.3 0.6 63.5 59.8 8.2 8.8 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 8.2 8.3 7.4 0.9 72.4 66.2 6.7 7.4 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.2 10.7 0.6 63.7 59.7 8.1 8.7 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 4.6 4.8 5.9 1.0 73.0 67.0 3.1 3.8 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.6 9.3 10.5 0.8 69.1 63.7 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.4 10.4 0.5 63.4 59.7 7.3 7.9 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.6 8.9 10.6 0.5 63.6 59.6 7.6 8.3 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 8.8 8.8 9.1 0.8 70.6 64.9 7.6 8.2 8.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.9 10.3 0.9 69.8 63.9 8.0 8.9 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 8.5 8.8 7.7 1.2 76.7 70.7 7.2 7.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.2 10.8 0.9 69.8 63.8 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 7.9 8.2 9.0 1.0 74.7 68.1 6.5 7.2 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 7.4 7.4 6.8 0.8 70.9 65.3 6.0 6.7 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.6 10.9 0.6 64.6 60.3 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------