***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 24.0 24.5 22.8 1.8 72.3 68.5 21.1 22.5 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 24.3 23.9 22.1 1.1 63.6 61.7 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 24.5 24.6 22.7 1.6 68.4 65.8 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 17.7 18.5 20.2 2.3 77.3 72.0 14.3 15.9 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 25.3 25.5 21.5 2.1 72.8 69.5 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 24.3 25.1 20.2 2.7 78.8 74.5 20.8 22.4 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 23.8 23.4 21.9 1.0 63.0 61.2 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 14.0 14.4 19.8 2.3 74.0 70.7 10.7 12.2 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 24.9 25.0 22.2 1.9 70.9 68.1 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 24.7 25.2 20.8 2.4 75.7 72.0 20.9 22.6 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 24.9 25.1 22.0 2.0 71.3 68.3 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 24.2 24.6 20.9 2.1 72.4 69.1 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 25.1 25.3 21.7 2.0 71.1 68.2 21.7 23.3 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 24.6 24.8 21.6 1.7 69.6 67.2 21.3 22.9 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 24.6 24.8 22.4 1.7 70.6 66.6 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 25.6 25.9 21.5 2.0 71.2 68.2 22.4 23.9 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 23.4 22.9 21.4 1.0 62.2 60.7 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 23.9 24.4 19.9 2.3 74.8 71.4 20.3 21.9 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 24.1 23.8 22.3 1.1 64.0 62.1 21.1 22.6 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 19.8 20.2 18.0 2.1 73.5 70.6 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 24.7 24.9 22.8 1.8 70.8 67.8 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 24.3 24.0 21.5 1.1 64.1 62.2 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 23.2 23.9 22.2 1.1 62.8 61.2 21.2 22.7 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 24.5 24.8 21.8 2.0 71.8 69.0 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 24.1 24.4 21.7 1.9 72.7 68.7 21.2 22.6 23.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 24.6 24.8 20.1 1.8 69.8 67.4 21.4 23.0 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 24.0 24.4 22.2 1.8 72.4 68.5 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 25.1 25.7 21.3 2.2 75.6 70.9 21.7 23.2 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 19.2 19.6 19.2 2.1 73.4 70.5 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 24.0 23.8 22.3 1.2 65.2 63.0 21.1 22.6 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------