***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 14.9 16.9 16.7 -0.2 47.5 47.4 15.4 17.1 18.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 15.3 16.7 16.5 -0.6 43.7 44.5 15.7 17.2 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 15.5 17.1 16.9 -0.5 45.0 45.5 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.6 14.7 0.1 51.1 50.1 8.8 10.5 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 15.5 17.3 15.3 -0.3 46.6 46.9 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 17.8 17.1 14.2 0.0 49.9 49.5 15.3 17.1 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 14.9 16.4 16.4 -0.5 44.0 44.9 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.5 8.2 14.4 -0.5 45.4 46.2 6.8 8.7 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 15.6 17.4 15.7 -0.4 46.2 46.6 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 15.3 16.9 14.9 -0.4 46.1 46.6 15.7 17.3 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 15.5 17.1 15.4 -0.4 45.6 46.2 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 15.1 16.7 15.2 -0.4 45.6 46.4 15.4 17.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 18.6 17.6 14.8 -0.3 46.9 47.6 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 16.1 17.3 15.6 -0.7 42.8 43.8 16.3 18.0 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 17.1 16.8 15.5 0.2 52.7 51.4 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 16.3 18.1 15.2 -0.2 47.5 47.7 16.6 18.3 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 14.7 16.2 16.2 -0.6 43.7 44.6 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 14.8 16.3 14.6 -0.4 45.8 46.6 15.1 16.7 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 15.2 16.5 16.7 -0.6 43.3 44.1 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 11.9 13.6 12.6 -0.5 45.2 46.8 12.2 14.1 15.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 15.5 17.2 16.3 -0.3 46.6 46.8 15.9 17.6 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 15.5 16.8 16.2 -0.6 43.0 43.9 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 15.6 16.8 16.8 -0.7 42.2 43.2 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 15.8 17.3 15.7 -0.5 44.8 45.5 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 15.2 16.9 15.3 -0.1 49.2 48.7 15.5 17.0 18.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.1 14.8 -0.3 46.7 47.6 15.7 17.4 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 15.4 17.3 16.2 -0.1 48.6 48.3 15.8 17.4 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.3 15.1 0.1 51.5 50.4 15.5 17.2 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 11.0 12.7 13.9 -0.5 45.1 46.4 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 15.1 16.6 16.6 -0.5 44.4 45.0 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------