***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 20.5 20.6 19.5 0.6 60.5 57.4 19.5 20.2 20.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 20.7 20.5 19.1 0.1 51.5 50.8 19.7 20.4 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 20.9 20.8 19.6 0.3 55.0 53.3 19.8 20.6 21.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 14.4 14.4 17.3 1.0 68.1 62.9 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 21.0 21.1 18.2 0.5 59.0 56.4 19.9 20.7 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 21.0 20.9 17.0 1.1 67.4 62.6 19.2 20.0 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 20.3 20.1 19.0 0.1 51.7 51.3 19.4 20.1 20.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.1 17.0 0.6 59.1 56.6 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 21.0 21.0 18.7 0.4 57.5 55.2 19.9 20.7 21.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 20.6 20.7 17.6 0.6 60.3 57.3 19.5 20.3 21.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 19.7 21.0 18.4 0.4 56.8 54.8 19.9 20.7 21.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 19.2 20.5 17.9 0.5 58.0 55.9 19.3 20.2 21.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 21.3 21.4 17.9 0.5 58.2 56.1 20.2 21.0 21.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 20.0 21.0 18.3 0.1 52.3 51.4 20.1 20.9 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 20.4 20.8 18.8 0.9 66.4 61.7 19.4 20.1 20.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 21.8 21.9 18.1 0.5 59.1 56.6 20.7 21.5 22.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 20.0 19.8 18.7 0.1 51.1 50.8 19.1 19.8 20.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 20.0 20.1 17.1 0.6 59.1 56.5 18.9 19.7 20.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 20.5 20.3 19.3 0.0 50.8 50.2 19.5 20.3 20.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.9 15.2 0.5 58.5 56.6 15.6 16.5 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 20.9 20.9 19.3 0.5 58.1 55.7 19.8 20.6 21.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 20.8 20.5 18.8 0.0 50.8 50.4 19.8 20.5 21.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 20.8 20.5 19.3 -0.1 48.4 48.4 19.9 20.5 21.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 21.0 20.9 18.5 0.4 56.4 54.4 19.8 20.6 21.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 20.3 20.5 18.3 0.7 62.8 59.1 19.4 20.0 20.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 21.0 21.1 17.4 0.5 58.5 56.5 19.8 20.7 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 20.6 20.8 19.0 0.6 62.0 58.7 19.6 20.3 21.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 20.7 21.3 18.0 1.0 67.5 62.4 19.4 20.4 21.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.0 16.4 0.5 57.4 55.5 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 20.5 20.3 19.3 0.2 52.9 51.9 19.5 20.2 20.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------