***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 16.1 21.7 17.3 172.0 81.2 71.8 3.9 7.6 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 13.4 19.0 17.7 191.8 84.2 75.1 3.7 6.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 16.9 23.2 17.4 179.8 82.4 72.9 4.7 8.5 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 21.8 26.8 18.2 144.0 76.3 66.1 5.4 10.9 18.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 16.6 21.3 18.0 160.6 79.3 70.5 3.5 7.4 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 16.5 21.9 20.2 165.4 80.3 69.7 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 12.6 17.9 17.6 186.0 83.4 74.7 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 23.0 29.2 23.5 166.4 80.6 71.9 6.6 11.8 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 15.7 21.1 19.5 178.6 82.4 74.3 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 19.2 25.6 23.3 169.0 81.0 72.1 5.3 9.8 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 15.0 20.2 20.0 169.6 80.9 70.7 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 15.2 19.9 19.5 170.0 81.1 71.6 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 15.7 23.0 21.5 182.2 82.9 71.2 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 22.4 31.4 24.0 190.3 84.4 75.3 5.8 10.7 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 10.5 16.0 13.9 117.4 70.7 57.9 3.7 7.9 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 13.6 17.5 18.8 163.9 79.9 69.0 3.6 6.8 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 10.8 16.0 18.9 206.8 86.0 77.9 3.2 5.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 21.7 29.2 24.4 169.2 81.4 73.1 4.7 9.5 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 14.2 20.9 18.1 193.9 84.6 74.6 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 23.0 28.2 24.1 152.1 78.0 71.1 5.3 10.8 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 16.7 23.0 18.2 176.4 81.9 72.9 4.2 8.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 13.0 20.5 21.4 223.7 88.0 79.5 3.5 6.3 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 15.4 21.9 18.9 198.1 85.3 74.6 4.6 7.9 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 19.2 27.2 21.7 182.7 83.2 73.7 4.9 9.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 17.8 21.7 17.7 148.3 77.2 66.9 5.2 9.5 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 14.0 16.1 15.2 137.1 74.7 65.9 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 17.3 21.3 16.9 151.9 77.7 68.6 4.4 8.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 13.2 15.6 16.4 136.0 74.7 63.2 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 31.3 39.8 23.7 160.8 79.8 72.0 8.0 15.2 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 12.3 17.3 16.7 179.0 82.3 72.8 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------