***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9.6 9.8 16.8 125.3 71.9 57.7 2.1 4.5 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.5 11.1 16.2 131.5 73.5 57.2 2.0 4.5 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.9 12.0 17.4 122.7 71.0 56.1 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.5 23.5 17.0 118.3 69.9 56.1 7.0 12.8 20.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 15.5 16.2 17.3 123.6 71.4 58.4 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.6 14.7 17.0 121.0 70.5 56.7 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.3 13.9 16.3 134.3 74.1 56.6 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.4 20.1 18.6 128.5 72.6 58.3 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.8 13.3 16.7 116.8 69.6 57.0 4.4 7.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.9 15.7 18.4 124.1 71.5 58.5 4.9 8.6 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.5 16.0 17.6 128.6 72.6 58.4 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 13.8 15.2 17.2 132.2 73.5 59.0 3.0 6.5 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.8 14.0 17.3 128.0 72.7 58.0 3.2 6.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 18.6 20.7 21.4 131.2 73.2 61.7 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.8 15.5 15.4 117.3 70.2 54.4 3.2 7.1 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 11.9 12.5 16.9 125.6 71.9 58.5 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.6 11.0 15.4 129.9 73.1 55.8 2.3 4.7 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.7 13.4 19.0 119.1 70.0 58.0 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.2 12.0 16.4 128.3 72.5 57.3 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.1 16.5 21.6 122.8 71.0 59.7 4.7 8.6 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 13.0 13.6 17.7 124.1 71.4 58.8 4.1 7.3 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.4 11.7 15.4 127.0 72.4 57.0 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.7 14.0 16.8 122.3 70.8 57.4 3.8 7.1 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 15.0 15.6 19.5 123.7 71.2 59.0 5.3 8.9 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 14.3 15.5 19.1 130.6 73.1 59.9 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 14.3 16.0 18.1 131.5 73.4 60.3 2.6 6.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 10.5 11.2 18.0 128.6 72.6 59.0 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.5 18.0 15.3 114.7 69.4 55.7 4.8 9.5 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 20.6 21.2 20.7 124.1 71.3 60.1 6.6 11.6 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 10.3 11.3 16.8 131.1 73.3 57.5 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------