***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.9 14.5 13.3 127.9 72.8 51.6 2.2 5.5 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.3 14.0 11.6 116.0 69.9 47.8 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.3 18.9 13.8 129.0 73.1 52.4 3.6 8.0 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.0 20.7 15.6 122.5 71.8 52.9 5.3 10.3 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.0 15.4 14.5 123.1 71.7 53.5 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.9 19.0 15.2 120.5 71.2 54.0 4.4 9.1 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.9 13.0 11.8 119.4 70.9 48.5 2.9 6.0 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.7 24.8 15.5 120.7 71.0 53.4 7.7 13.6 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.0 16.3 14.6 120.6 70.9 52.7 3.6 7.6 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.2 17.8 15.8 121.8 71.2 53.9 3.3 7.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.4 14.6 14.4 124.3 72.1 53.7 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.6 16.4 14.0 120.5 71.1 53.5 3.3 7.3 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.7 19.9 15.1 124.3 72.1 54.2 4.3 9.1 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.8 23.2 17.3 127.2 72.5 56.3 4.1 9.3 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.2 12.9 15.6 118.2 71.3 51.3 2.7 5.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.6 16.8 15.0 128.6 73.1 54.9 3.0 6.9 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.4 9.4 10.8 104.8 67.1 47.0 2.4 5.1 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.3 23.6 18.2 131.9 73.6 56.5 4.4 9.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.6 16.1 12.0 118.7 70.5 49.3 3.4 7.5 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 5.5 22.6 20.4 132.5 73.7 54.7 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.3 18.6 14.0 125.3 72.2 52.9 4.4 8.8 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.9 11.2 11.4 102.9 66.3 48.5 2.7 5.9 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.5 15.8 13.1 124.6 72.1 52.8 2.9 6.7 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.2 21.8 17.3 133.7 74.1 57.0 3.3 8.2 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.1 16.9 14.0 120.4 71.2 52.6 4.0 8.1 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.6 17.8 14.9 124.1 72.2 51.7 4.6 8.9 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.3 15.0 13.7 127.1 72.6 52.3 2.8 6.2 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.0 12.0 15.7 125.6 72.6 53.5 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.2 30.5 19.3 135.2 74.3 57.3 6.2 13.0 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 3.2 14.4 12.7 125.6 72.3 49.8 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------