***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 51.2 56.9 58.4 130.6 73.5 66.6 21.4 33.4 48.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 36.4 53.0 54.9 131.3 73.7 65.9 21.8 32.5 45.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 56.0 62.5 60.1 131.6 74.0 66.3 26.0 38.3 52.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 63.7 80.4 64.3 119.5 68.9 63.5 41.9 58.2 76.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 57.3 62.2 63.0 127.2 72.2 66.9 30.6 42.4 55.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 59.8 65.7 67.2 127.3 72.6 65.6 28.8 42.0 57.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 46.5 54.8 55.7 133.9 74.7 66.9 19.5 30.5 44.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 80.1 84.9 72.5 130.9 74.0 68.9 47.7 60.9 75.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 56.9 61.7 64.7 129.7 73.3 68.3 27.7 39.6 53.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 68.3 73.1 72.8 131.3 74.2 69.2 38.2 50.6 64.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 57.7 62.6 64.7 130.3 73.5 68.1 29.2 41.0 54.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 57.2 61.1 63.4 129.9 73.3 67.6 28.7 40.0 53.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 59.6 65.8 67.7 133.3 74.7 68.7 29.8 41.8 56.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 79.8 90.1 76.4 135.7 76.3 68.5 42.5 57.9 75.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 42.0 51.9 57.8 109.1 64.6 59.5 23.4 36.7 53.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 51.5 55.5 63.5 128.2 72.6 66.8 25.9 36.5 48.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 29.8 46.5 55.0 132.7 74.4 66.8 16.7 26.4 38.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 71.9 78.0 77.3 131.7 74.8 69.0 35.5 49.8 66.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 41.0 59.6 56.0 130.6 73.5 65.9 24.0 36.2 50.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 74.9 81.3 86.4 131.9 74.7 69.5 42.0 55.6 70.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 57.1 63.5 62.4 132.6 74.4 68.3 27.8 39.8 53.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 46.7 55.2 58.6 134.6 75.3 68.4 20.6 31.3 44.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 56.0 61.0 58.9 130.9 73.7 66.1 28.0 39.5 52.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 70.7 78.5 72.3 134.1 75.4 68.3 31.9 46.8 64.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 57.9 63.2 63.1 125.8 71.7 66.0 25.7 39.1 55.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 47 53 100 57.1 61.6 63.0 124.8 71.2 65.1 29.6 41.9 55.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 45 55 100 52.2 57.4 59.9 127.0 72.1 65.6 22.4 34.9 50.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 43.1 53.9 60.4 116.1 67.5 62.0 26.8 38.5 52.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 100.3 107.8 80.2 132.0 75.1 69.1 52.5 71.3 92.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 45 55 100 45.6 51.8 56.3 131.5 73.8 65.7 21.0 31.4 43.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------