***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 9999.0 15.2 15.7 3.8 94.4 89.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 12.2 14.4 15.0 3.5 93.5 87.8 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 14.2 16.1 15.3 3.6 94.1 88.9 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 10.0 12.1 13.0 3.2 92.8 86.6 7.0 8.2 9.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 11.1 13.0 13.2 3.2 92.6 87.7 8.2 9.3 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 10.0 11.7 11.1 3.1 93.8 89.3 7.6 8.6 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 12.1 14.1 15.2 3.6 94.4 88.6 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 5.8 7.5 11.3 3.2 94.0 89.6 3.4 4.3 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 11.8 13.2 13.3 2.9 91.8 87.2 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 11.4 12.7 12.0 3.1 92.9 88.5 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 11.2 12.5 12.3 2.7 90.3 86.1 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 10.1 11.7 11.9 3.1 93.2 89.0 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 10.7 12.1 11.6 2.9 92.5 88.6 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 12.0 13.5 13.6 3.4 94.2 89.3 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 11.9 13.4 13.9 2.9 92.0 86.2 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 12.0 13.4 12.0 2.8 91.5 87.3 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 12.0 13.8 14.5 3.4 93.6 87.2 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 10.4 11.9 11.1 3.1 93.1 88.6 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 11.9 13.7 15.0 3.5 93.3 87.7 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 6.5 7.7 9.3 3.0 93.8 89.9 4.7 5.3 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 11.6 13.4 14.8 3.3 93.0 87.9 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 11.0 12.5 14.5 3.2 92.1 86.2 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 11.5 13.4 14.8 3.5 93.8 88.2 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 11.3 12.6 13.1 3.2 93.2 88.2 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 12.3 14.5 14.6 3.6 93.9 88.6 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 10.7 12.2 11.9 3.5 94.2 89.5 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 12.9 15.5 15.0 3.6 94.1 89.1 9.4 10.8 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 10.5 12.2 13.2 3.1 92.3 86.6 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 9.8 11.4 10.2 2.8 91.6 87.4 7.1 8.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 12.4 14.5 15.4 3.6 94.0 88.5 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------