***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 9999.0 13.0 13.5 2.9 89.5 82.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 11.4 12.9 13.0 2.6 87.5 80.2 8.2 9.5 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 13.2 14.7 13.2 2.9 90.6 83.6 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 8.8 10.3 11.1 2.7 88.8 83.1 5.7 6.9 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 10.7 12.4 11.0 2.7 89.3 83.0 7.3 8.6 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 9.7 11.7 9.7 2.8 91.2 84.4 6.3 7.7 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 11.2 12.4 13.0 2.6 87.1 80.4 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 5.4 7.1 9.7 2.8 91.4 84.0 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 11.6 13.2 11.6 2.8 90.7 84.2 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 10.9 12.6 10.2 2.8 91.0 84.3 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 10.6 12.4 10.7 2.7 90.6 83.9 7.4 8.7 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 9.4 11.2 10.4 2.8 91.5 84.3 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 10.1 12.0 9.8 2.7 90.5 83.6 6.9 8.2 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 11.2 12.6 11.5 2.7 90.7 83.4 8.7 9.7 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 11.5 13.4 11.9 3.0 91.6 86.0 8.5 9.6 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 11.5 13.2 10.3 2.7 90.4 83.7 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 11.1 12.0 12.5 2.4 85.0 77.9 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 9.8 11.6 9.6 2.8 91.0 84.1 6.8 8.0 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 11.2 12.6 13.0 2.8 89.2 81.5 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 6.2 7.9 8.3 2.6 89.1 81.3 3.2 4.5 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 11.1 12.7 12.6 2.8 90.1 83.6 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 10.3 11.4 12.5 2.5 86.3 78.8 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 10.8 12.6 13.0 2.9 91.5 83.8 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 10.5 12.0 11.4 2.9 91.6 84.8 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 11.8 13.5 11.9 2.8 89.5 83.3 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 10.0 11.4 9.9 2.5 88.3 81.8 7.2 8.4 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 12.4 14.3 12.7 2.9 89.2 82.7 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 9.9 11.6 11.4 2.8 89.9 84.0 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 9.0 10.4 9.1 2.7 90.6 83.3 6.5 7.5 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 11.7 13.1 13.2 2.8 88.6 81.4 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------