***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 7.9 9.2 1.1 64.7 61.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.5 7.1 8.9 1.0 63.9 61.1 4.8 6.1 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.3 9.0 1.1 65.6 62.2 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 4.6 4.3 6.8 0.9 63.6 60.6 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 6.8 6.4 6.9 0.9 63.5 60.4 4.0 5.3 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.4 5.2 0.6 59.6 57.8 3.3 4.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.9 8.9 0.9 62.9 60.4 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.6 2.1 5.6 0.9 62.4 59.7 -0.4 1.1 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.9 7.4 7.4 1.0 64.2 60.9 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.8 6.1 0.9 62.1 59.3 4.7 6.0 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.5 6.5 0.9 63.6 60.3 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 6.1 5.6 6.2 0.9 62.5 59.6 3.3 4.6 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 6.5 5.7 5.6 0.6 59.1 57.2 3.7 5.0 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 7.7 7.5 7.5 1.1 65.6 61.9 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 7.2 7.1 7.5 1.1 66.4 62.5 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 7.8 7.3 6.1 0.8 62.0 59.2 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.8 8.5 0.9 61.8 59.5 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.7 5.5 0.8 61.0 58.5 3.7 4.9 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 7.4 7.2 8.9 1.1 65.6 62.2 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.1 2.4 4.2 0.8 60.0 58.1 0.2 1.6 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 7.4 7.1 8.4 1.0 64.2 61.1 4.7 6.0 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 6.6 6.3 8.6 1.0 64.1 61.1 4.2 5.4 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 7.3 7.2 8.8 1.2 67.8 63.6 4.8 6.0 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 6.8 6.5 7.3 1.0 64.4 61.0 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 7.8 7.4 7.7 1.0 63.8 61.0 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.8 5.8 0.5 57.6 56.2 4.1 5.3 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 8.1 7.7 8.5 1.0 64.0 61.1 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 5.9 5.6 7.0 0.9 64.4 61.0 3.3 4.5 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 4.7 5.0 5.1 0.8 60.6 58.3 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.4 9.1 1.1 64.6 61.6 5.1 6.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------