***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 9999.0 11.1 12.5 2.3 91.7 84.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 9.7 10.9 12.0 2.1 90.6 83.3 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 11.5 12.6 12.2 2.3 92.5 85.4 10.0 10.6 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 6.9 7.9 10.0 2.1 92.1 85.4 5.4 6.0 6.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 8.9 10.2 10.1 2.1 91.5 85.1 6.8 7.6 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 7.9 9.2 8.4 2.0 92.5 85.4 6.2 6.9 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 9.6 10.5 12.1 2.1 90.5 83.4 7.9 8.6 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 3.9 4.9 8.6 2.1 91.8 84.6 2.3 3.0 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 9.7 10.8 10.5 2.1 91.5 84.7 8.0 8.7 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 9.3 10.3 9.1 2.0 91.5 84.5 7.7 8.3 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 8.9 10.0 9.6 2.0 90.9 84.5 7.2 7.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 7.8 8.9 9.3 2.0 91.7 84.9 6.2 6.9 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 8.4 9.5 8.7 1.9 90.6 84.2 6.7 7.4 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 9.7 10.7 10.6 2.1 92.8 85.4 8.3 8.8 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 9.5 10.5 10.8 2.2 93.8 87.5 8.1 8.6 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 9.8 10.9 9.2 2.0 91.0 84.8 8.1 8.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 9.5 10.3 11.6 2.0 89.3 81.6 8.0 8.6 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 8.3 9.4 8.5 2.0 90.9 83.6 6.6 7.3 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 9.5 10.5 12.0 2.2 91.8 84.3 7.9 8.5 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 4.7 5.6 7.1 1.9 89.3 81.9 3.0 3.7 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 9.4 10.6 11.6 2.2 91.5 84.6 7.4 8.2 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 8.7 9.6 11.5 2.0 90.0 82.3 7.1 7.7 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 9.2 10.6 11.9 2.3 93.6 86.0 7.5 8.2 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 8.8 9.7 10.3 2.1 92.4 85.1 7.5 8.0 8.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 10.0 11.4 11.1 2.2 92.3 85.4 7.9 8.7 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 8.5 9.4 8.9 1.9 90.4 83.8 7.0 7.6 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 10.3 11.9 11.8 2.3 91.8 84.9 7.9 8.9 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 8.1 9.2 10.3 2.1 92.5 86.1 6.4 7.0 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 7.4 8.3 7.9 1.8 89.8 82.5 5.9 6.5 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 9.9 11.0 12.3 2.2 91.3 84.2 8.1 8.8 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------