***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 9999.0 28.0 26.6 5.9 97.8 90.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 24.6 28.5 26.6 5.9 97.4 90.1 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 24.9 29.6 27.0 6.3 98.3 91.2 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 17.9 22.7 24.5 5.8 98.0 90.8 13.9 15.5 16.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 25.4 30.7 25.7 6.4 98.5 91.9 21.4 22.9 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 24.5 29.8 24.1 6.7 99.0 94.9 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 24.1 27.6 26.3 5.6 96.9 89.7 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 14.3 19.6 24.4 6.8 99.0 93.4 10.4 11.9 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 25.0 30.5 26.7 6.6 98.8 92.2 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 24.8 30.9 25.4 7.0 99.1 93.2 20.6 22.2 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 25.2 30.7 25.7 6.6 98.8 92.9 21.1 22.7 24.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 24.6 30.4 25.3 6.9 99.0 93.5 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 25.5 31.3 25.7 7.1 99.2 94.3 21.4 22.9 24.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 25.1 30.6 26.1 6.6 98.7 91.8 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 24.8 28.9 25.9 5.7 97.9 90.5 21.4 22.7 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 26.0 31.5 25.7 6.7 99.0 93.8 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 23.8 27.1 25.8 5.5 96.7 89.2 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 24.1 29.9 24.6 6.9 99.0 92.9 20.0 21.5 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 24.4 28.8 26.9 6.2 98.0 91.0 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 20.1 25.6 22.3 6.5 98.9 92.8 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 24.9 29.8 26.9 6.2 98.2 90.9 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 24.6 28.5 25.9 5.7 97.2 89.8 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 24.7 29.9 27.2 6.7 98.8 92.1 20.9 22.4 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 24.8 30.4 26.1 6.7 98.8 92.2 20.8 22.3 23.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 24.2 28.3 25.4 5.7 97.7 89.6 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 25.2 30.1 24.3 6.2 98.5 93.1 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 24.2 28.2 25.9 5.7 97.5 89.6 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 25.4 30.2 25.4 5.9 98.1 91.7 21.3 22.9 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 19.5 25.3 23.7 6.7 98.9 92.5 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 24.4 28.4 26.8 6.0 97.6 90.4 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------