***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 9999.0 23.1 22.9 3.4 85.4 78.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 22.8 23.8 22.7 3.2 83.3 75.6 20.5 21.5 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 23.1 24.2 23.0 3.4 85.0 77.8 20.4 21.5 22.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 16.8 18.4 21.5 3.7 87.7 81.5 12.7 14.3 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 23.5 24.7 21.7 3.6 86.7 80.3 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 22.8 24.6 20.5 4.0 89.9 83.7 19.3 20.7 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 22.4 23.3 22.5 3.1 82.7 75.3 20.1 21.1 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 13.2 14.4 20.5 3.6 86.2 79.5 10.1 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 23.5 24.7 22.1 3.6 86.2 79.6 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 23.0 24.2 21.1 3.6 85.6 78.9 19.9 21.2 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 23.6 24.9 21.6 3.8 87.6 81.2 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 23.1 24.6 21.5 3.9 88.1 81.5 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 23.9 25.5 21.3 4.1 89.5 82.9 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 23.6 24.5 21.5 3.1 81.3 74.1 20.9 22.1 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 23.0 24.9 22.0 4.0 90.3 84.2 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 24.4 25.9 21.6 4.0 89.0 82.7 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 21.9 22.8 22.1 2.9 81.0 73.5 19.8 20.8 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 22.6 23.5 20.3 3.3 82.8 76.0 19.6 20.8 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 22.7 23.7 22.9 3.3 84.1 76.2 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 19.0 19.9 18.2 3.1 81.8 74.9 16.3 17.5 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 23.2 24.3 22.6 3.5 85.4 78.7 20.3 21.4 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 22.8 23.6 22.0 2.8 80.7 73.1 20.5 21.6 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 23.0 24.0 22.9 3.4 84.5 76.6 20.6 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 23.3 24.3 21.7 3.3 83.3 76.2 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 22.7 23.9 21.6 3.5 86.4 79.6 19.7 20.9 22.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 23.5 24.8 20.8 3.5 87.0 80.6 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 22.9 24.0 22.1 3.4 85.3 78.2 20.1 21.3 22.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 23.5 25.4 21.9 3.9 89.0 83.0 19.6 21.1 22.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 18.3 19.2 19.3 3.1 81.4 74.6 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 22.6 23.6 22.9 3.3 84.2 76.6 20.2 21.2 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------