***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 18.7 17.5 1.3 65.5 61.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 17.4 18.1 17.4 1.3 65.2 61.0 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.8 18.7 17.7 1.4 66.5 62.0 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 10.9 11.8 15.7 1.2 64.6 60.0 8.8 10.4 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 18.0 18.9 16.1 1.3 65.4 60.7 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 17.6 18.3 14.7 1.1 63.0 59.1 15.3 17.0 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 17.2 17.8 17.2 1.2 63.8 60.1 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 9.2 10.2 15.1 1.3 65.8 61.2 7.0 8.6 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 18.2 19.2 16.6 1.4 66.1 61.2 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 17.7 18.6 15.7 1.4 65.8 61.0 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 18.0 19.1 16.0 1.4 66.6 61.6 15.8 17.5 19.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 17.8 18.8 15.9 1.4 66.3 61.6 15.5 17.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 18.5 19.3 15.5 1.3 65.0 60.7 16.2 17.9 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.3 19.1 16.7 1.4 65.9 61.5 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.7 17.4 15.9 1.2 65.1 60.4 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 18.9 19.9 15.8 1.3 65.9 61.2 16.7 18.3 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.9 17.5 17.0 1.1 63.4 59.7 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 17.1 17.8 15.2 1.3 64.6 60.2 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 17.4 18.2 17.7 1.4 66.6 62.1 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 14.7 15.4 13.3 1.2 63.6 59.6 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 17.9 18.8 17.1 1.4 65.8 61.1 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 17.6 18.2 17.2 1.2 64.7 60.7 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 17.7 18.6 17.8 1.6 67.8 63.0 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 18.2 19.1 16.6 1.4 65.9 61.3 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 17.1 17.9 16.0 1.2 64.8 60.5 15.4 16.7 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 18.0 18.5 15.1 0.9 61.7 58.2 15.8 17.4 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 17.7 18.5 16.7 1.2 64.6 60.6 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 17.4 18.2 15.9 1.2 65.0 60.3 15.3 16.9 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.7 14.5 14.4 1.2 63.9 59.8 11.5 13.1 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 17.3 18.1 17.6 1.3 65.6 61.4 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------