***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 9999.0 4.7 4.4 37.4 35.2 22.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.3 5.2 5.3 50.5 44.2 34.6 3.4 6.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 2.9 4.4 4.9 43.2 37.2 26.0 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 3.3 5.0 5.3 38.9 34.6 24.4 4.6 10.5 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 2.7 3.4 4.6 35.2 29.9 19.6 3.9 8.2 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 2.9 4.1 5.1 37.4 31.5 23.8 4.4 8.9 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.8 5.0 5.8 56.1 47.1 39.3 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 4.6 5.7 4.5 33.3 29.5 20.3 6.7 12.3 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 2.7 4.5 5.9 46.8 35.9 25.3 3.9 7.8 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 3.8 5.2 5.4 39.2 32.4 23.0 5.4 10.2 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 3.0 3.4 3.7 29.6 27.8 18.6 4.5 8.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 2.5 3.1 3.5 29.9 28.2 19.1 3.9 7.7 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 2.7 2.8 3.5 26.5 23.4 16.5 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 3.6 5.9 6.2 45.0 36.6 26.3 5.0 10.1 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 2.5 3.8 4.6 37.7 33.5 23.0 3.6 8.1 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 2.1 2.3 3.4 26.9 24.0 17.1 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.6 4.1 5.3 49.7 43.4 34.8 2.8 5.1 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 3.1 4.5 6.2 42.7 33.1 23.8 4.3 9.5 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.9 4.5 5.3 49.1 42.7 32.0 2.9 5.9 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 4.1 5.8 7.0 42.3 32.6 22.5 6.0 11.4 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 2.9 4.6 5.3 44.0 36.6 24.5 3.8 8.1 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.0 4.7 5.8 52.1 44.7 35.3 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 3.3 4.9 5.5 48.7 40.2 29.6 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 3.1 4.6 5.6 42.6 33.3 23.3 4.6 9.2 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 3.1 4.1 4.6 32.3 30.8 19.8 4.5 9.2 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 2.6 2.9 4.0 31.0 26.0 20.2 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 3.3 4.6 4.6 34.9 33.0 21.6 4.6 9.2 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 2.4 3.1 4.6 35.7 31.7 22.2 3.4 7.5 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 5.4 7.3 6.6 42.4 32.7 23.7 7.5 15.2 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.7 4.5 5.5 51.0 44.1 34.5 2.8 5.5 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------