***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 10.8 8.9 96.7 65.7 42.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.4 11.0 10.3 117.5 70.8 49.0 2.1 4.8 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.3 9.8 8.9 93.2 64.9 43.8 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 5.6 14.4 8.0 74.1 57.9 41.0 6.0 11.3 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.5 9.0 7.5 69.7 56.0 38.5 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.8 7.7 9.2 74.7 55.9 42.3 2.7 6.0 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.6 12.3 10.4 121.7 71.6 49.7 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.3 12.2 8.8 75.1 57.2 42.1 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.2 8.1 8.1 73.7 57.7 39.5 3.3 6.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.1 9.6 9.1 77.1 58.5 42.2 4.1 7.4 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 3.5 9.1 7.1 73.5 57.2 40.0 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.2 7.9 6.8 70.5 55.4 39.9 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.2 7.7 75.3 57.2 41.4 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.1 16.5 11.7 105.1 67.6 47.2 4.9 9.4 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 3.7 11.0 8.6 83.8 61.0 41.6 4.0 7.7 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.6 7.3 7.2 72.5 57.4 41.4 2.5 5.4 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.4 12.5 10.9 135.3 74.7 50.7 2.3 4.9 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.0 11.0 11.0 84.4 60.9 45.2 4.7 8.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.1 11.2 10.1 111.4 69.4 47.7 2.7 5.8 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 13.2 14.4 88.3 61.7 47.9 4.7 9.1 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.0 8.6 8.1 81.5 60.5 39.8 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.6 14.2 11.4 136.1 74.8 51.7 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.6 12.2 10.0 103.8 67.6 46.4 3.1 6.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.2 10.6 10.1 89.4 63.0 43.9 4.1 7.2 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.2 9.7 9.6 87.8 63.0 43.0 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.9 7.8 7.3 70.3 55.4 39.1 2.9 6.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.2 7.3 10.0 96.9 66.1 44.3 2.1 4.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 4.1 10.5 7.6 72.7 57.5 41.2 4.3 8.2 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.4 16.2 12.8 91.6 63.2 47.4 6.1 10.9 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.6 9.7 9.9 108.8 68.7 47.6 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------