***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 7.0 11.9 111.4 68.9 51.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.0 11.6 11.8 97.5 64.4 49.2 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.1 13.6 11.2 95.8 64.0 48.9 3.6 7.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.6 19.0 13.1 106.2 67.6 50.5 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.2 13.6 12.4 103.2 66.8 50.0 3.8 7.6 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 5.5 15.2 12.9 94.5 63.5 49.6 5.0 9.7 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.4 10.7 12.2 104.2 66.5 51.3 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.9 19.0 12.3 87.1 61.1 46.3 7.7 13.6 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.2 14.4 12.3 102.1 66.0 49.6 3.6 8.0 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.5 14.0 12.8 92.6 62.8 47.7 3.9 8.4 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.5 11.5 10.9 96.1 64.7 46.7 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.6 11.6 10.4 89.7 62.5 46.1 3.0 6.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.8 14.4 11.5 93.5 63.6 48.8 4.4 8.9 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.8 16.7 14.4 95.4 63.3 47.1 4.1 9.7 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.3 12.2 12.8 108.3 68.2 48.3 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.3 11.4 11.0 94.9 64.4 47.9 2.8 6.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.3 8.1 12.6 101.6 66.0 50.8 2.1 4.4 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.5 15.4 15.1 91.2 61.9 48.0 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.8 12.1 11.6 95.0 63.7 47.9 3.0 7.0 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.5 14.1 18.7 89.4 60.5 47.7 5.1 9.8 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.7 15.9 11.5 105.1 66.9 50.3 4.1 8.7 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.4 10.3 12.6 97.5 64.6 49.3 2.8 6.1 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.2 11.3 11.7 93.9 63.1 46.8 2.7 6.4 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.7 15.2 13.4 92.5 62.6 47.9 3.8 9.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.3 16.7 13.5 112.2 69.3 52.7 4.0 8.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 5.4 14.9 11.2 93.7 63.8 49.6 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.8 15.0 13.4 115.4 69.8 52.7 3.4 7.3 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.9 10.0 12.4 102.8 66.7 48.9 2.5 5.4 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.5 20.3 17.0 92.5 62.0 47.7 6.8 13.4 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.4 11.0 11.6 98.6 64.7 49.5 2.9 6.3 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------